Reply #37: Here is the latest Updated Model for slight fix to refuser rates

[TruthIsAll]

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/10/05 12:13 PM							
							
OBJECTIVE:							
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.							
							
Precinct Variable Input Range (Min, Max) Constraints: 							
1-Response rates: will equate  to input weighted
average							
2-Kerry 2-party win percentages							
3-Alpha (K/B): will equate to input weighted average							
4-WPE: must input  (optional: set Min= Max= E-M)							
							
OPTIMIZER TARGET VOTE (2-party)							
Kerry		51.80%					
Bush		48.20%					
							
WEIGHTED AVERAGE RESPONSE							
Overall Response Rate		53.0%					
Alpha (K / B)		1.00					
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry				
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
EXIT POLL RESPONSE							
Min	30%	30%	30%	30%	30%		
Max	70%	70%	70%	70%	70%		
							
ALPHA (K/B)							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00	10.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%	-10.0%		
Max	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%	10.0%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
			EXIT POLL / VOTE DEVIATION 				
	Percentage			Amounts (mm)		
	Poll	Vote	Diff		Poll	Vote	Diff 
Kerry	51.59%	51.80%	0.21%		62.42	62.68	0.26
Bush	48.41%	48.20%	-0.21%		58.58	58.32	-0.26
							
PRECINCTS	
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Weight	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry	22.0%	40.0%	53.1%	64.0%	86.3%		51.59%
Bush	78.0%	60.0%	46.9%	36.0%	13.7%		48.41%
							
RESPONSE	
       48.0%	49.9%	53.6%	57.4%	57.8%		53.00%
WtdDev	-5.0%	-3.1%	0.6%	4.4%	4.8%		0%

ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.04	0.94	1.07	0.97		1.00
Dev	20.1%	3.7%	-5.8%	6.5%	-3.2%		0%

2-PARTY VOTE 							
Kerry	20.0%	39.3%	54.7%	62.0%	87.7%		51.80%
Bush	80.0%	60.7%	45.3%	38.0%	12.3%		48.20%
VOTES (mm)							
Kerry 	0.77	15.78	28.59	9.90	7.64		62.68
Bush	3.10	24.40	23.68	6.07	1.07		58.32
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
Diff	-2.32	-8.62	4.90	3.83	6.57		4.36


EXIT POLL (mm)							
Kerry 	0.85	16.07	27.76	10.23	7.52		62.42
Bush	3.02	24.10	24.51	5.75	1.19		58.58
TOTAL	3.87	40.17	52.27	15.97	8.71		121.00
Diff	-2.17	-8.04	3.24	4.48	6.32		3.84
							
WPE	-4.0%	-1.5%	3.2%	-4.1%	2.8%		0.42%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	6.0%	4.6%	11.7%	1.8%	2.5%		7.2%
							
							
							
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK		Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	20.0%	39.3%	54.7%	62.0%	87.7%		51.80%
							
Kerry	8	163	295	102	79		647
Pct	20.0%	39.3%	54.7%	62.0%	87.7%		51.80%
Bush	32	252	245	63	11		602
Pct	80.0%	60.7%	45.3%	38.0%	12.3%		48.20%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.04	0.94	1.07	0.97		1.00
AvgDev	20%	4%	-6%	7%	-3%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	19	207	289	95	52		663
Pct	48.0%	49.9%	53.6%	57.4%	57.8%		53.00%
							
Kerry	4	83	154	61	45		346
Pct	22.0%	40.0%	53.1%	64.0%	86.3%		51.59%
Bush	15	124	136	34	7		316
Pct	78.0%	60.0%	46.9%	36.0%	13.7%		48.41%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	21	208	251	70	38		587
Pct	52.0%	50.1%	46.4%	42.6%	42.2%		47.00%
							
Kerry	4	80	142	42	34		301
Pct	18.1%	38.5%	56.5%	59.3%	89.6%		52.07%
Bush	17	128	109	29	4		286
Pct	81.9%	61.5%	43.5%	40.7%	10.4%		47.93%
							
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-60.0%	-21.5%	9.4%	24.0%	75.4%		3.60%
Kp-Bp	-56.0%	-20.0%	6.2%	28.0%	72.6%		3.18%
							
WPE	-4.0%	-1.5%	3.2%	-4.1%	2.8%		0.42%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%