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Reply #22: 11 ALPHA SCENARIOS: BASE CASE (NO BIAS) ALPHA = 1.0 [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Jun-09-05 06:57 AM
Response to Original message
22. 11 ALPHA SCENARIOS: BASE CASE (NO BIAS) ALPHA = 1.0
Edited on Thu Jun-09-05 07:13 AM by TruthIsAll
			ANALYSIS OF EXIT POLL RESPONSE				
			BY PARTISANSHIP FOR VARIOUS ALPHA (K/B)
	             AND CONSTANT RESPONSE RATE (R=53%)				
			
ASSUME KERRY WON: 51.8% - 48.2%				
							
			HIGH	SOLID	NON-	HIGH	SOLID
	AVERAGE		BUSH	BUSH	PART. KERRY	KERRY
K/B	0.95		1.25	0.97	0.87	1.03	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.61%	39.10%	56.94%	59.84%	79.56%
Kpoll	49.52%		22.47%	38.21%	51.14%	60.93%	83.09%
WPE	4.55%		-7.71%	1.78%	11.59%	-2.19%	-7.07%
							
K/B	0.96		1.25	0.98	0.88	1.04	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.61%	39.00%	57.02%	59.82%	79.55%
Kpoll	49.92%		22.48%	38.41%	51.84%	61.06%	83.18%
WPE	3.77%		-7.73%	1.17%	10.36%	-2.48%	-7.27%

K/B	0.97		1.25	0.99	0.89	1.04	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.61%	38.90%	57.10%	59.80%	79.54%
Kpoll	50.30%		22.49%	38.61%	52.53%	61.18%	83.27%
WPE	2.99%		-7.76%	0.58%	9.15%	-2.76%	-7.46%
							
K/B	0.98		1.25	1.00	0.91	1.04	1.08
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.60%	38.81%	57.18%	59.78%	79.54%
Kpoll	50.69%		22.50%	38.81%	53.21%	61.30%	83.36%
WPE	2.23%		-7.79%	-0.01%	7.95%	-3.04%	-7.66%
							
K/B	0.99		1.25	1.01	0.92	1.05	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.60%	38.72%	57.26%	59.77%	79.53%
Kpoll	51.07%		22.51%	39.02%	53.88%	61.43%	83.45%
WPE	1.47%		-7.82%	-0.59%	6.75%	-3.32%	-7.85%
							

BASE CASE:
ALPHA = 1.0 

K/B	1.00		1.25	1.02	0.93	1.05	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.59%	38.64%	57.33%	59.75%	79.52%
Kpoll	51.44%		22.52%	39.22%	54.54%	61.55%	83.54%
WPE	0.72%		-7.84%	-1.16%	5.57%	-3.60%	-8.04%
							




K/B	1.01		1.25	1.03	0.95	1.06	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.59%	38.55%	57.40%	59.74%	79.52%
Kpoll	51.81%		22.53%	39.42%	55.20%	61.67%	83.63%
WPE	-0.03%		-7.87%	-1.73%	4.40%	-3.87%	-8.24%
							
K/B	1.02		1.25	1.04	0.96	1.06	1.09
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.59%	38.48%	57.46%	59.72%	79.51%
Kpoll	52.18%		22.54%	39.62%	55.84%	61.80%	83.72%
WPE	-0.77%		-7.90%	-2.28%	3.24%	-4.15%	-8.43%
							
K/B	1.03		1.25	1.05	0.98	1.06	1.10
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.58%	38.40%	57.52%	59.71%	79.50%
Kpoll	52.55%		22.55%	39.82%	56.48%	61.92%	83.81%
WPE	-1.50%		-7.93%	-2.83%	2.09%	-4.42%	-8.62%
							
K/B	1.04		1.26	1.06	0.99	1.07	1.10
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.58%	38.33%	57.58%	59.70%	79.50%
Kpoll	52.91%		22.56%	40.02%	57.11%	62.04%	83.90%
WPE	-2.22%		-7.95%	-3.38%	0.95%	-4.70%	-8.81%
							
K/B	1.05		1.26	1.07	1.00	1.07	1.10
Resp.	53.00%		40.00%	51.56%	51.76%	60.00%	60.00%
Kvote	51.80%		18.58%	38.26%	57.64%	59.68%	79.49%
Kpoll	53.27%		22.57%	40.22%	57.73%	62.17%	83.99%
WPE	-2.94%		-7.98%	-3.91%	-0.18%	-4.97%	-9.00%

.....................................................


		WPE SENSITIVITY TO ALPHA				

K/B	AVG	HB	B	BK	K	HK
 0.95 	4.55%	-7.71%	1.78%	11.59%	-2.19%	-7.07%
 0.96 	3.77%	-7.73%	1.17%	10.36%	-2.48%	-7.27%
 0.97 	2.99%	-7.76%	0.58%	9.15%	-2.76%	-7.46%
 0.98 	2.23%	-7.79%	-0.01%	7.95%	-3.04%	-7.66%
 0.99 	1.47%	-7.82%	-0.59%	6.75%	-3.32%	-7.85%

 1.00 	0.72%	-7.84%	-1.16%	5.57%	-3.60%	-8.04%

 1.01 	-0.03%	-7.87%	-1.73%	4.40%	-3.87%	-8.24%
 1.02 	-0.77%	-7.90%	-2.28%	3.24%	-4.15%	-8.43%
 1.03 	-1.50%	-7.93%	-2.83%	2.09%	-4.42%	-8.62%
 1.04 	-2.22%	-7.95%	-3.38%	0.95%	-4.70%	-8.81%
 1.05 	-2.94%	-7.98%	-3.91%	-0.18%	-4.97%	-9.00%
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