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Reply #18: Peace, you are the one of the most gifted writers on DU. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Jun-08-05 08:52 PM
Response to Reply #14
18. Peace, you are the one of the most gifted writers on DU.
Edited on Wed Jun-08-05 09:04 PM by TruthIsAll
You must understand.

I am not trying to convince, nor educate the masses. I am just trying to provoke thought and discussion among those who are technically at a certain level. I am only adding my analysis to the debate between USCV, DUers and the naysayers.

As you know, I do many types of analysis. I have done my best to explain but cannot be expected to educate all lurkers. If they have a specific question, I will try to answer it, but I cannot try to explain the details. The naysayers and trolls would like to bog me down in minutia - and wear me out. That is their MO.

As for those who are sincere, I am just being very practical in telling them to get up to speed on the subject. I hope that is not taken as arrogance. But I do not have time to educate.

There is no question that some of this stuff is complicated; I had to struggle with the USCV paper the first time I read it, as well as with Febble's work. By the way, she is much better than I will ever be in her explanatory skills. I guess I just don't have as much patience or writing ability. That also applies to Ron Baiman - he is an excellent writer. I do my best, but I know my limits.

Let's face it. The crux of the matter is that the exit polls say that Kerry won. I have shown this in a myriad of ways by slicing and dicing the numbers. And we have shown that the probabilties that he did are very high

Dealing with rBr is more involved. Let's see if I can explain the Exit Poll Response Optimizer in a nutshell.

It takes the following exit poll data (the "constraints"):
1) percentage of responders to the poll (53%)

2) ratio of Kerry to Bush responders (56/50 or 1.12)

3) the five group weighting of partisanship precincts (High Bush, moderate Bush, Nonpartisan, moderate Kerry, High Kerry).

4) The Bush win percentage (51.23% of the 2-party vote).

5) The WPE (precinct "error" rate by partisanship). In other words the difference between the poll and the vote within each partisanship grouping (the total error is around 6.7%).

6) We restrict the variables to a min-max range in each precinct.
For example, the response rate may be limited to the 40-60% range in one or more precincts. Or it could be 30-70%, or 50-55%. The purpose of using ranhge limits is to provide feasibiltty to the results (we sure don't expect that any of the aggregate groupings would have a 5% response rate; most likely it will be between 48-58%)

Using this data, the model proceeds to calculate the required Kerry and Bush partisanship response rates for each of the 5 groups in order to satisfy the total weighted average input constraints.

In other words, it works backwards from the vote to calculate the the exit poll results, using the input error rates, applied to each of the precinct groupings. It determines what the responses have to be by precinct category to derive the Bush/ Kerry final vote (the "target").

We can also target Kerry as the winner, and assume that there is no reluctant response bias (K/B =1); that is, Kerry and Bush voters responded equally to the pollster. That is what I believe to be the more likely case; in fact, if there was anti-exit poll bias, it was more likely to have been reluctant republicans who voted for Kerry.

I hope that clears it up somewhat.

Try to read the output of the model. If there is anything you want clarified, let me know.

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