You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #50: ENHANCEMENTS AND A CORRECTION [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 09:18 PM
Response to Reply #48
50. ENHANCEMENTS AND A CORRECTION
Edited on Tue Jun-07-05 09:20 PM by TruthIsAll
As per OTOH, a slight fix was made to the calculation of
responders.
In addition, I added calculations of  vote counts, based on
the derived exit poll and targeted 2-party percentages applied
to the 121 million 2-party vote.


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
6/7/05 10:04 PM							
							
Objective: 
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.							
							
Constraints on Precinct Variables:							
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).							
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min,
Max)							
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
							
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 							
							
TARGET INPUT							
Kerry 2-party vote		48.77%					
Bush 2-party vote		51.23%					
Wtd Avg Response		53.0%					
Wtd Avg Alpha (K/B)		1.12					
							
							
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
KERRY WIN%							
Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
RESPONSE							
Min	1%	1%	1%	1%	1%		
Max	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
ALPHA							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
							
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
POLL	Pct	Votes					
Kerry	52.16%	63.11					
Bush	47.84%	57.89					
Bush needed	55.46%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
PRECINCTS							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Weights	3.2%	33.2%	43.2%	13.2%	7.2%		
							
Resp.	12.4%	37.4%	58.8%	72.0%	73.0%		53.0%
Dev	-40.6%	-15.6%	5.8%	19.0%	20.0%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.22	1.09	1.16	1.11	1.00		1.12
Dev	9%	-3%	4%	-1%	-11%		0%

2-PARTY VOTE 							
Kerry	16.7%	38.7%	46.4%	68.2%	88.2%		48.77%
Bush	83.3%	61.3%	53.6%	31.8%	11.8%		51.23%
Votes (mm)							
Kerry 	0.65	15.53	24.26	10.89	7.68		59.01
Bush	3.23	24.64	28.02	5.08	1.03		61.99
Diff	-2.58	-9.11	-3.76	5.82	6.65		-2.98

EXIT POLL							
Kerry	21.7%	41.7%	50.7%	71.2%	88.0%		52.16%
Bush	78.3%	58.3%	49.3%	28.8%	12.0%		47.84%
Votes (mm)							
Kerry 	0.84	16.76	26.48	11.37	7.67		63.11
Bush	3.03	23.41	25.79	4.61	1.04		57.89
Diff	-2.19	-6.66	0.68	6.76	6.63		5.22

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.22	1.09	1.16	1.11	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	9%	-3%	4%	-1%	-11%		0%
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	5	155	318	119	66		663
Pct	12.37%	37.40%	58.85%	72.04%	72.98%		53.0%
							
Kerry	1	65	161	85	58		369
Pct	22%	42%	51%	71%	88%		52.16%
Bush	4	90	157	34	8		293
Pct	78%	58%	49%	29%	12%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	35	260	222	46	24		587
Pct	87.63%	62.60%	41.15%	27.96%	27.02%		47.0%
							
Kerry	6	96	90	28	22		240
Pct	16%	37%	40%	61%	89%		44.5%
Bush	29	164	133	18	3		347
Pct	84%	63%	60%	39%	11%		55.5%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	7	160	251	113	79		610
Pct	16.7%	38.7%	46.4%	68.2%	88.2%		48.77%
Bush	33	255	289	52	11		640
Pct	83.3%	61.3%	53.6%	31.8%	11.8%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-66.6%	-22.7%	-7.2%	36.4%	76.4%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-56.6%	-16.6%	1.3%	42.3%	76.1%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC