Reply #47: Well, start with this...

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry Responders = Kerry vote% * Alpha * Total Responders

Alpha = K/B = Kerry Responders /(Kerry Vote% * Total
Responders)

I'll let you figure it out from here.

I'm leaving work.
I'm hungry.

Knock yourself out.
Later.

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
6/7/05 5:12 PM			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target			
Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll response
data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).			
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
			
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	1.20	1.20	1.50	1.50	1.50		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	21.9%	58.4%	59.6%	30.0%	44.2%		53.0%
Dev	-31.1%	5.4%	6.6%	-23.0%	-8.8%		-10.2%
							
KERRY							
Poll	21.0%	24.0%	60.0%	82.1%	94.1%		52.16%
Vote	16.0%	21.0%	55.7%	79.2%	94.3%		48.77%
Dev	-5.0%	-3.1%	-4.2%	-2.9%	0.1%		-3.39%

ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
Dev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%

WPE Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.16%	wtd average of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%	wtd average of exit poll responders					
Bush needed	55.57%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
							
VOTE							
Kerry	6	87	301	131	85		610
Pct	16.0%	21.0%	55.7%	79.2%	94.3%		48.77%
Bush	34	328	239	34	5		640
Pct	84.0%	79.1%	44.3%	20.8%	5.7%		51.23%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.20	1.20	1.10	1.03	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	7%	7%	-2%	-8%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	9	242	322	50	40		663
Pct	22%	58%	60%	30%	44%		53.0%
							
Kerry	2	58	193	41	37		331
Win Pct	21%	24%	60%	82%	94%		52.16%
Bush	7	184	129	9	2		331
Win Pct	79%	76%	40%	18%	6%		47.84%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	31	173	218	115	50		587
Pct	78%	42%	40%	70%	56%		47.0%
							
Kerry	5	29	108	90	47		278
Pct	15%	17%	49%	78%	94%		44.4%
Bush	27	144	110	25	3		309
Pct	85%	83%	51%	22%	6%		55.6%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-68.1%	-58.1%	11.4%	58.4%	88.5%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-58.1%	-52.0%	19.9%	64.3%	88.2%		4.31%
							
WPE Calc	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%