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Reply #41: I would take the report with salt [View All]

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue Jun-07-05 09:57 AM
Response to Reply #36
41. I would take the report with salt
California's party registration is 43% democratic to 34.7% republican. The report has party identification at 38% to 33%, which is a good match to republican registration, but not democratic. What is also problematic is that a binary comparison is being made, when all parties need to enter the picture. What may explain the 5% difference may be stronger allegiance to a third party, such as the greens, although one is a registered democrat; or oversampling of republicans (as we had seen with Gallup during the election).

Since voter registration is tied to motor vehicle registration, it is possible the party registration may be out of date, but since registration is annual, anyone feeling strongly on the matter would have switched over the last two years since 2001(the survey is 2003).

The other problem is the one characteristic of all surveys, and with the discussion of NEP's exit poll's merits needs to always be considered, and that is non-response rates. I was unable to download the data set for the survey, but if the response rates are in the 40% or greater then the error terms are going to be high; and the MOE wider.

Question 18 may be the basis for the report, but the numbers are trending away from republicans towards democrats in the post 9/11 period in 2003.

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