Reply #26: so, this shows...

[OnTheOtherHand]

that strictly speaking, alpha could be not very high in the high-Bush precincts, but only if we postulated ridiculously skewed refusal rates? I'm not sure why that skew in refusal rates doesn't also show up in response rates. (I'm not too bothered, since I'm willing to stipulate a high mean alpha in those precincts anyway.)

(I'm not sure why you would bother to let alpha rise to 1.5 in the high-Kerry precincts, since obviously it doesn't have to.)

I take it that precincts can be assigned fractionally? So, for instance, when the table shows 6 out of 40 precincts as "Kerry votes," and that equalling 16.0%, actually the 16.0% is more precise, and it's about 6.4 precincts.