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Reply #15: Well, hello TFC. [View All]

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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 10:08 PM
Response to Reply #13
15. Well, hello TFC.
I will run it exactly as you say, even though I have done it
already.
But let's get a dialogue going as a start.

You can fine-tune the assumptions later, if you wish.
By that I mean, adjust min-max ranges, whatever..


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target			
Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll response
data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW).			
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the l range (Min,
Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
			
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	45.8%	69.6%	39.6%	51.2%	63.4%		53.0%
Dev	-7.2%	16.6%	-13.4%	-1.8%	10.4%		

ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
Dev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.16%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%						
Bush needed	55.27%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	11%	26%	54%	78%	80%		48.20%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	18	289	214	85	57		663
Pct	46%	70%	40%	51%	63%		53.0%
							
Kerry	3	91	122	69	46		330
Pct	17%	31%	57%	81%	80%		52.2%
Bush	15	198	92	16	12		332
Pct	83%	69%	43%	19%	20%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	22	126	326	80	33		587
Pct	54%	30%	60%	49%	37%		47.0%
							
Kerry	2	27	163	61	26		279
Pct	8%	21%	50%	75%	80%		44.7%
Bush	20	99	163	20	7		308
Pct	92%	79%	50%	25%	20%		55.3%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	5	118	286	129	72		610
Pct	11.9%	28.4%	52.9%	78.3%	80.0%		48.77%
Bush	35	297	254	36	18		640
Pct	88.1%	71.6%	47.1%	21.7%	20.0%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-76.2%	-43.1%	5.8%	56.7%	59.9%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-66.2%	-37.0%	14.3%	62.6%	59.6%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
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