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TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE? [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Jun-05-05 03:00 PM
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TO BAIMAN, FEBBLE, OTOH, TFC, O'DELL, etc: IS rBr PLAUSIBLE?
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Edited on Sun Jun-05-05 03:15 PM by TruthIsAll
Don't you think its time we moved off the pablum and got down
to real analysis?

Don't you think it's time to stop criticizing USCV's findings
and get back to work?

Don't you think it's time to test out REAL assumptions and do
some basic algebraic analysis - using constrained
optimization?

Don't you think it's time to try a different approach to
determine whether or not rBr is feasible? 

Don't you think it's time to respond to my challenge to stress
test the Exit Poll Optimizer?

Don't you think it's time to cut the through the rBr fog and
see if it is worth your time to defend it?

Don't you think it's time?

Let's cut through the jargon.
Let's do some work.

Let's have your inputs.
I am at your service.

I will run any and all scenarios you can throw at the model to
see if there is ONE plausible scenario which justifies the rBr
theory.

Here is the model:


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: constrained to weighted average within (MinW,
MaxW)
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to (Min, Max)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
4-WPE enter your own (Min, Max) range. You can choose E-M
WPE's if you wish (as shown). 			
			

RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
Enter a value:
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.12	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
						
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
							
Response rates:							
MinR	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		
MaxR	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		
							
Alpha							
Min	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10	0.10		
Max	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00	100.00		
							
WPE							
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Min	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
Max	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT SUMMARY							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		Wtd Average
Resp.	45.8%	69.7%	39.5%	51.2%	63.5%		53.0%
Dev	-7.2%	16.7%	-13.5%	-1.8%	10.5%		

ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
Dev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%

WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.0%
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 52.16%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.84%						
Bush needed	55.28% of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total/Avg
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	11%	26%	53%	78%	80%		48.19%
							
ALPHA							
K/B	1.48	1.21	1.07	1.04	1.00		1.12
AvgDev	33%	8%	-5%	-7%	-11%		0%
							
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	18	289	213	85	57		663
Pct	46%	70%	40%	51%	63%		53.0%
							
Kerry	3	91	122	69	46		330
Pct	17%	32%	57%	81%	80%		52.2%
Bush	15	198	92	16	12		332
Pct	83%	68%	43%	19%	20%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	22	126	327	80	33		587
Pct	54%	30%	60%	49%	37%		47.0%
							
Kerry	2	27	163	61	26		279
Pct	8%	22%	50%	75%	80%		44.7%
Bush	20	99	163	20	7		308
Pct	92%	78%	50%	25%	20%		55.3%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	5	118	285	129	72		610
Pct	11.9%	28.5%	52.8%	78.3%	79.9%		48.77%
Bush	35	297	255	36	18		640
Pct	88.1%	71.5%	47.2%	21.7%	20.1%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-76.2%	-42.9%	5.7%	56.6%	59.9%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-66.2%	-36.8%	14.2%	62.5%	59.6%		4.31%
							
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
E-M WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							


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