Reply #3: IN THIS OPTIMIZATION, KERRY PRECINCT WIN % ARE NOT CONSTRAINED

[TruthIsAll]

They are allowed to vary anywhere from 0-100% in each
precinct.
And the results are very similar to the main thread:
Alpha is 1.22 Bush precincts, but just 1.0-1.04 in strong
Kerry precincts.

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: within (MinW, MaxW) with 53% wtd. avverage
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to (0, 100%)			
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to 1.12 wtd average
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default). 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.120	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush			Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		Avg
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%		0.00%
MaxW	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%		100.00%
Response rates:							
MinR	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%		50.00%
MaxR	70%	70%	70%	70%	70%		70.00%
							
WPE  	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Actual	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Resp.	50.0%	57.5%	50.8%	51.1%	50.0%		53.0%
K/B	1.22	1.22	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry 	52.15%	of exit poll responders					
Bush	47.85%						
Bush needed	55.05%	of refusers to match his vote					
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.38%						
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	25%	18%	56%	78%	100%		48.34%
							
K/B	1.22	1.22	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	239	274	84	45		663
Pct	50%	58%	51%	51%	50%		53.0%
							
Kerry	6	52	165	69	45		337
Pct	31%	22%	60%	81%	100%		52.2%
Bush	14	187	109	16	0		326
Pct	69%	78%	40%	19%	0%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	176	266	81	45		587
Pct	50%	42%	49%	49%	50%		47.0%
							
Kerry	4	26	137	61	45		273
Pct	21%	15%	52%	75%	100%		44.9%
Bush	16	150	129	20	0		315
Pct	79%	85%	48%	25%	0%		55.1%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	10	78	302	129	90		610
Pct	25.6%	18.8%	56.0%	78.3%	99.9%		48.77%
Bush	30	337	238	36	0		640
Pct	74.4%	81.2%	44.0%	21.7%	0.1%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-48.8%	-62.5%	12.0%	56.6%	99.7%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-38.7%	-56.4%	20.5%	62.4%	99.4%		4.31%
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
-Input	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.01%