They are allowed to vary anywhere from 0-100% in each
precinct.
And the results are very similar to the main thread:
Alpha is 1.22 Bush precincts, but just 1.0-1.04 in strong
Kerry precincts.
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.
TARGET INPUT
Kerry 48.77%
Bush 51.23%
Constraints on Precinct Variables:
1-Response rate: within (MinW, MaxW) with 53% wtd. avverage
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to (0, 100%)
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to 1.12 wtd average
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default).
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS
53.0% Wtd Average Response rate
1.120 Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )
1250 Strong Bush Strong Kerry
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 Avg
Kerry Win Pct:
MinW 0% 0% 0% 0% 0% 0.00%
MaxW 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100.00%
Response rates:
MinR 50% 50% 50% 50% 50% 50.00%
MaxR 70% 70% 70% 70% 70% 70.00%
WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
Actual -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT
Precincts
Number 40 415 540 165 90
Resp. 50.0% 57.5% 50.8% 51.1% 50.0% 53.0%
K/B 1.22 1.22 1.08 1.04 1.00 1.12
EXIT POLL
Kerry 52.15% of exit poll responders
Bush 47.85%
Bush needed 55.05% of refusers to match his vote
Kerry Deviation
Vote-Exit -3.38%
OPTIMIZATION MODEL
Categ. HighB Bush Even Kerry HighK . Total
Prcts 40 415 540 165 90 1250
Kerry 25% 18% 56% 78% 100% 48.34%
K/B 1.22 1.22 1.08 1.04 1.00 1.12
RESPONDERS
Total 20 239 274 84 45 663
Pct 50% 58% 51% 51% 50% 53.0%
Kerry 6 52 165 69 45 337
Pct 31% 22% 60% 81% 100% 52.2%
Bush 14 187 109 16 0 326
Pct 69% 78% 40% 19% 0% 47.8%
REFUSERS
Total 20 176 266 81 45 587
Pct 50% 42% 49% 49% 50% 47.0%
Kerry 4 26 137 61 45 273
Pct 21% 15% 52% 75% 100% 44.9%
Bush 16 150 129 20 0 315
Pct 79% 85% 48% 25% 0% 55.1%
VOTE
Kerry 10 78 302 129 90 610
Pct 25.6% 18.8% 56.0% 78.3% 99.9% 48.77%
Bush 30 337 238 36 0 640
Pct 74.4% 81.2% 44.0% 21.7% 0.1% 51.23%
WPE
Kv-Bv -48.8% -62.5% 12.0% 56.6% 99.7% -2.46%
Kp-Bp -38.7% -56.4% 20.5% 62.4% 99.4% 4.31%
WPE -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
-Input -10.0% -6.1% -8.5% -5.9% 0.3% -6.77%
Diff 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.01%