WHAT IS THE EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZER TELLING US ABOUT rBr?

[TruthIsAll]

THESE ARE THE KEY RESULTS FROM THE OPTIMIZATION:

Target: Bush wins 51.23% of the 2-party target vote 

Based on the input 53% weighted average response rate and the
1.12 K/B response ratio (alpha):

1. Kerry won 52.16% of the 2-party exit poll

2. Bush needed 55.06% of refusers to MATCH his vote

3. Bush voters had to responded MOST HEAVILY in KERRY
terrritory. Alpha ranged from an IMPLAUSIBLE 1.20 to 1.41 in
Bush precincts to near 1.0 in Kerry precincts. 

ARE WE REALLY EXPECTED TO BELIEVE THAT?

ARE WE TO BELIEVE THAT BUSH VOTERS WERE EXTREMELY RELUCTANT TO
RESPOND IN PARTISAN BUSH PRECINCTS, BUT NOT SO IN PARTISAN
KERRY PRECINCTS?

IN LIGHT OF THE OPTIMIZER'S OUTPUT, HOW CAN rBr EVER BE
CONSIDERED PLAUSIBLE?


EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL			
			
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive the target Kerry/Bush split using aggregate exit
poll response data.			
			
TARGET INPUT			
Kerry	48.77%		
Bush	51.23%		
			
Constraints on Precinct Variables:			
1-Response rate: equals weighted average within (MinW, MaxW)	
2-Kerry win percentages constrained to the range (Min, Max)
3-Alpha (K/B response ratio) constrained to weighted average
4-WPE set to E-M actuals (default) or user input. 			
			
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS			
							
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 						
1.120	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )						
							
							
1250	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry			
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		Avg
							
Kerry Win Pct:							
MinW	10%	20%	40%	60%	80%		37.92%
MaxW	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		57.60%
Response rates:							
MinR	50%	50%	50%	50%	50%		50.00%
MaxR	70%	70%	70%	70%	70%		70.00%
							
WPE  	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Actual	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
							
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT							
							
Precincts							
Number	40	415	540	165	90		
Resp.	50.0%	59.0%	50.0%	50.0%	50.0%		53.0%
K/B	1.41	1.20	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
EXIT POLL							
Kerry:52.16% of exit poll responders
Bush:	47.84% "

Bush needed	55.06% of refusers to MATCH his vote	
							
Kerry Deviation							
Vote-Exit	-3.39%						
							

							
							
OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
							
Categ.	HighB	Bush	Even	Kerry	HighK	.	Total
Prcts	40	415	540	165	90		1250
Kerry	14%	20%	55%	78%	98%		48.33%
							
K/B	1.41	1.20	1.08	1.04	1.00		1.12
							
RESPONDERS							
Total	20	245	270	83	45		662
Pct	50%	59%	50%	50%	50%		53.0%
							
Kerry	4	59	161	67	44		335
Pct	20%	24%	60%	81%	98%		52.2%
Bush	16	186	109	16	1		327
Pct	80%	76%	40%	19%	2%		47.8%
							
REFUSERS							
Total	20	170	270	82	45		587
Pct	50%	41%	50%	50%	50%		47.0%
							
Kerry	2	28	138	62	44		275
Pct	10%	17%	51%	75%	98%		44.9%
Bush	18	142	132	21	1		313
Pct	90%	83%	49%	25%	2%		55.1%
							
VOTE							
Kerry	6	87	299	129	88		610
Pct	15.2%	21.0%	55.4%	78.1%	98.2%		48.77%
Bush	34	328	241	36	2		640
Pct	84.8%	79.0%	44.6%	21.9%	1.8%		51.23%
							
WPE							
Kv-Bv	-69.5%	-58.0%	10.8%	56.2%	96.4%		-2.46%
Kp-Bp	-59.5%	-51.9%	19.3%	62.1%	96.1%		4.31%
WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
-Input	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.77%
Diff	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%		0.00%