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Reply #5: OPTIMIZATION: NO CONSTRAINTS ON RESPONDERS (0-100%) [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 11:40 AM
Response to Original message
5. OPTIMIZATION: NO CONSTRAINTS ON RESPONDERS (0-100%)
Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 11:57 AM by TruthIsAll
Why did all those Bush Voters in the MOST PARTISAN  Bush
precincts vanish when they were asked to respond to the exit
poll?

Must have been very shy - or in a rush to get to the
bathrooms. 

EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL				
				
Objective: Determine values of constrained variables required
to derive a target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate
exit poll response data.				
				
TARGET INPUT				
Bush 	51.20%			
Kerry	48.80%			
				
Precinct Range Variables:				
1-Kerry win percentages constrained to the precinct range
(Min, Max)				
2-Alpha (K/B response rate) constrained to the weighted
average 				
3-WPE across precincts constrained to match response data				
				
RESPONSE INPUT CONSTRAINTS				
								
53.0%	Wtd Average Response rate 							
1.120	Wtd Average Alpha (K/B )							
								
1250	Precincts	Strong Bush	 Strong Kerry			
	Kerry	40	415	540	165	90		
	Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		
	Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		
								
-6.77%	WPE  	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%		

								
								
OPTIMIZER OUTPUT								
								
Precinct		40	415	540	165	90		Avg
Response:		6.9%	60.0%	38.6%	68.6%	98.9%		53.0%
								
Alpha(K/B):		2.46	1.12	1.07	1.07	0.93		1.12

								
Kerry wins	52.19% of exit poll responders					
Bush wins	47.81%							
Bush needs	53.77% of refusers to match his vote						
								
Target								
Kerry 48.80%							
Bush	51.20%							
								
								
	OPTIMIZATION MODEL							
								
		Strong Bush		Strong Kerry       Total			
Precincts	40	415	540	165	90	       1250

	K Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%		37.6%
	K Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%		57.6%

	Kerry% 3%	35%	51%	65%	93%		49.0%
	Alpha	2.46	1.12	1.07	1.07	0.93		1.12
								
	Resp%	6.9%	60.0%	38.6%	68.6%	98.9%		53.0%
	Resp	3	249	208	113	89		663
								
	K Resp 	0	97	114	79	77		367
	B Resp	3	152	95	34	12		295
	K Resp	6.4%	39.0%	54.6%	69.9%	86.5%		52.2%
	B Resp	93.6%	61.0%	45.4%	30.1%	13.5%		47.8%
								
	K Ref	0	52	158	31	1		243
	B Ref 	37	114	174	20	0		345
								
	TotalK 	1	149	272	110	78		610
	TotalB 	39	266	268	55	12		640
								
	B Total	98.6%	64.0%	49.7%	33.1%	13.4%		51.2%
	K Total	1.4%	36.0%	50.3%	66.9%	86.6%		48.8%
								
	Kv-Bv	-97.1%	-28.1%	0.7%	33.8%	73.2%		-2.4%
	Kp-Bp	-87.1%	-21.9%	9.1%	39.7%	72.9%		4.4%
	WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3%		-6.8%
								
	B Exit%	93.6%	61.0%	45.4%	30.1%	13.5%		47.8%
	B Ref%	98.9%	68.6%	52.3%	39.5%	0.0%		53.8%
								
	WPE  	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%		-6.77%

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