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EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Jun-04-05 01:08 AM
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EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL: Bush needed 55.2% of refusers
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Edited on Sat Jun-04-05 01:33 AM by TruthIsAll
EXIT POLL RESPONSE OPTIMIZATION MODEL

			
Objective: 
Determine values of constrained variables required to derive a
target Kerry/Bush percentage split using aggregate exit poll
response data.					
					
In this run, the TARGET GOAL was to match Bush's 51.25%
2-party vote.
				
Kerry won the exit poll with 52.14%.					

Key results: 
1) The output response curve is an inverted U skewed to Bush
partisanship precincts. The response curve interval was
constrained to [50%-60%] for this run.  

50.0%	56.2%	53.6%	50.0%	50.0%

2) Bush needed to win 55.21% of refusers as he only won 47.86%
of responders.					
					
					
Precinct Range Variables:					

1) Response Rates are constrained to equal the input weighted
average within the (Low, High) range					

2) Kerry win percentages: constrained within precinct interval
(Min, Max)

3) Alpha:  1.12 weighted average. 				

						
					
Input Constraints:

WPE constrained to match E-M		

Response Ranges	
Low 	50%
High	60%					
Avg 	53.6%
Alpha 1.120			


Output:

Bush%			
Respond 47.86%		
Refuse  55.21%		


Precincts	Strong Bush		Strong Kerry	
1250		40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry win%					
	Min	0%	20%	40%	60%	80%
	Max	20%	40%	60%	80%	100%
-6.77%	WPE 	-10.00%	-6.10%	-8.50%	-5.90%	0.30%


48.2%	Kerry	8%	25%	53%	71%	100% < Kerry win pcts
1.12	Alpha	1.85	1.15	1.09	1.04	1.00 < K/B response ratio
						
53.6%	Resp%	50.0%	56.2%	53.6%	50.0%	50.0% < response curve
670	Resp	20	233	289	82	45 < total responders
						
345	K Resp 	3	68	168	61	45 < Kerry responders
325	B Resp	17	165	122	21	0 < Bush responders

52.14%K Resp	14.2%	29.2%	57.9%	74.1%	99.7% < Kerry exit
poll%
47.86%B Resp	85.8%	70.8%	42.1%	25.9%	0.3% < Bush exit
						
265	K Ref	1	40	122	56	45 < Kerry Refusals
315	B Ref 	19	141	128	26	0 < Bush refusals
						
609	TotalK 	4	109	290	117	90 < Total Kerry Vote
641	TotalB 	36	306	250	48	0 < Total Bush vote
						
51.25% B Total	90.9%	73.9%	46.3%	28.8%	0.1% < Bush Vote
48.75% K Total	9.1%	26.1%	53.7%	71.2%	99.9% < Kerry vote
						
-2.50% Kv-Bv	-81.7%	-47.7%	7.4%	42.4%	99.7% <Vote margin
4.28%	 Kp-Bp	-71.7%	-41.6%	15.9%	48.3%	99.4% <exit margin
-6.78% WPE	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3% < within precinct
error
						
47.86% B Exit%	85.8%	70.8%	42.1%	25.9%	0.3% < Bush exit
poll
55.21% B Ref%	95.9%	77.8%	51.2%	31.8%	0.0% < Req. Bush
refusal
						
-6.77% WPE 	-10.0%	-6.1%	-8.5%	-5.9%	0.3% < Target WPE
-0.01% Tol	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

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