Reply #5: Optimizations and response rates

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry wins 7 of 8 optimizations


1250	Precincts					
	High Bush		High Kerry	
	40	415	540	165	90	
	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%	
						
Optimize    Goal    Kerry Bush	Constraints (53% avg
response)		
1	Max Bush	50.30%	49.70%			
2	Max Kerry	50.72%	49.28%			
3	Min Bush	71.61%	28.39%			
4	Min Kerry	50.30%	49.70%			
5	Max Kerry	54.97%	45.03%<  Response [30%,70%]		
6	Max Bush	50.35%	49.65%<  Response [30%,70%]		
						
						

	10%	30%	50%	70%	90%	

      	  Goal	Kerry	Bush	Constraints 
7	Max Kerry	54.19%	45.81%<  Response [30%,70%]		
8	Max Bush	48.08%	51.92%<  Response [30%,70%]		
						
OPT 1						
Kerry	50.30%					
Bush	49.70%	<maximize				

		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%

0.53	Resp	89.70%	57.35%	50.88%	46.57%	41.17%
1.06	alpha	1.79	1.15	1.02	0.93	0.82
662	Resp	36	238	275	77	37
329	K Resp 	13	109	140	43	24
333	B Resp	23	129	135	34	13
300	K Ref	1	71	133	53	42
288	B Ref 	3	106	133	35	11
						
629	TotalK 	14	180	272	96	67
621	TotalB 	26	235	268	69	23
49.70%B Pct%	65.76%	56.63%	49.55%	41.92%	25.81%
49.52%B Exit%	64.12%	54.12%	49.12%	44.12%	34.12%
0.18%	WPE	1.64%	2.51%	0.43%	-2.20%	-8.31%
						
						

OPT 2						
Kerry	50.72%	<maximize				
Bush	49.28%					
		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	50.30%	53.11%	54.04%	51.24%	50.67%
1.06	alpha	1.01	1.06	1.08	1.02	1.01
663	Resp	20	220	292	85	46
344	K Resp 	4	94	158	52	37
318	B Resp	16	127	134	33	9
290	K Ref	4	78	124	48	36
298	B Ref	16	117	124	32	9
						
634	TotalK 8	171	282	100	72
616	TotalB 32	244	258	65	18
49.28%B Pct%	79.9%	58.7%	47.8%	39.2%	19.5%
47.95%B Exit%	79.9%	57.5%	46.0%	38.5%	18.9%
1.33%	WPE	0.1%	1.2%	1.9%	0.7%	0.5%


OPT 3						
Kerry	71.61%					
Bush	28.39%	<minimize				
		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	100.0%	6.3%	100.0%	0.0%	62.5%
1.06	alpha	2	0.127	2	0	1.25000001
663	Resp	40	26	540	0	56
614	K Resp 	16	1	540	0	56
49	B Resp	24	25	0	0	0
281	K Ref	0	156	0	99	27
306	B Ref	0	233	0	66	7
						
895	TotalK 16	157	540	99	83
355	TotalB 24	258	0	66	7
28.39%B Pct%	60.00%	62.21%	0.00%	40.00%	7.50%
	B Exit%	60.00%	94.94%	0.00%	#DIV/0!	0.00%
	WPE	0.00%	-32.73%	0.00%	#DIV/0!	7.50%
						
OPT 4						
Kerry	50.30%	<minimize				
Bush	49.70%					
		HighBush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	0.2	0.4	0.5	0.6	0.8
0.53	Resp	89.7%	57.3%	50.9%	46.6%	41.2%
1.06	alpha	1.79	1.15	1.02	0.93	0.82
662	Resp	36	238	275	77	37
329	K Resp 	13	109	140	43	24
333	B Resp	23	129	135	34	13
300	K Ref	1	71	133	53	42
288	B Ref	3	106	133	35	11
						
629	TotalK 14	180	272	96	67
621	TotalB 26	235	268	69	23
	B Pct%	65.8%	56.6%	49.6%	41.9%	25.8%
	B Exit%	64.1%	54.1%	49.1%	44.1%	34.1%
	WPE	1.6%	2.5%	0.4%	-2.2%	-8.3%

						
						

OPT 5						
Kerry	54.97%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]				
Bush	45.03%					
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	30.0%	30.0%	70.0%	55.6%	62.5%
1.06	alpha	0.60	0.60	1.40	1.11	1.25
663	Resp	12	125	378	92	56
413	K Resp 	1	30	265	61	56
249	B Resp	11	95	113	31	0
274	K Ref	6	116	81	44	27
314	B Ref	22	174	81	29	7
						
687	TotalK 7	146	346	105	83
563	TotalB 33	269	194	60	7
	B Pct%	82.4%	64.8%	36.0%	36.3%	7.5%
	B Exit%	88.0%	76.0%	30.0%	33.3%	0.0%
	WPE	-5.6%	-11.2%	6.0%	3.0%	7.5%


OPT 6						
Kerry	50.35%					
Bush	49.65%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]				
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	20%	40%	50%	60%	80%
0.53	Resp	70.0%	58.1%	51.5%	47.1%	41.6%
1.06	alpha	1.40	1.16	1.03	0.94	0.83
663	Resp	28	241	278	78	37
332	K Resp 	8	112	143	44	25
330	B Resp	20	129	135	34	13
297	K Ref	2	69	131	52	42
290	B Ref	10	104	131	35	11
						
629	TotalK 10	182	274	96	67
621	TotalB 30	233	266	69	23
	B Pct%	74.4%	56.2%	49.2%	41.6%	25.6%
	B Exit%	72.0%	53.5%	48.5%	43.5%	33.5%
	WPE	2.4%	2.7%	0.7%	-1.8%	-7.9%

OPT 7						
Kerry	54.19%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]			
Bush	45.81%					
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	10%	30%	50%	70%	90%
0.53	Resp	30.0%	30.0%	66.8%	70.0%	55.6%
1.06	alpha	0.60	0.60	1.34	1.40	1.11
662	Resp	12	125	360	116	50
427	K Resp 	1	22	241	113	50
236	B Resp	11	102	120	2	0
250	K Ref	3	87	90	35	36
337	B Ref	25	203	90	15	4
						
677	TotalK 4	110	330	148	86
573	TotalB 36	305	210	17	4
	B Pct%	91.2%	73.6%	38.8%	10.4%	4.4%
	B Exit%	94.0%	82.0%	33.2%	2.0%	0.0%
	WPE	-2.8%	-8.4%	5.6%	8.4%	4.4%

						
						
OPT 8		Requires high Bush response in Kerry precincts				
Kerry	48.08%					
Bush	51.92%	< maximize; Response rates [30%,70%]				
		High Bush		High Kerry
	1250	40	415	540	165	90
	Kerry%	10%	30%	50%	70%	90%
0.53	Resp	70.0%	64.5%	48.7%	41.9%	38.2%
1.06	alpha	1.40	1.29	0.97	0.84	0.76
663	Resp	28	268	263	69	34
300	K Resp 	4	104	128	41	24
362	B Resp	24	164	135	29	11
301	K Ref	1	44	138	67	50
287	B Ref	11	103	138	29	6
						
601	TotalK 5	148	267	108	74
649	TotalB 35	267	273	57	16
	B Pct%	87.2%	64.4%	50.6%	34.7%	18.1%
	B Exit%	86.0%	61.3%	51.3%	41.3%	31.3%
	WPE	1.2%	3.1%	-0.7%	-6.5%	-13.2%