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The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004) [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-25-05 11:19 PM
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The Miracle of Coogan's Bluff (1951) vs the Miracle of Bush's Bluff (2004)
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Edited on Wed May-25-05 11:42 PM by TruthIsAll
August 12, 1951:
Brooklyn Dodgers: 73-38
New York Giants: 59-51 (13.5 games behind)

The Giants won 37 of their last 44 games.
The Dodgers won 23 of their last 43 games.

They tied for the pennant at 96-58.

The Giants won the playoff when Bobby Thomson (the Flying Scot) hit the Shot Heard Round the World.

It was called the Miracle of Coogan's Bluff, named after the Harlem site on the hill where the Polo Grounds once stood.

The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!
The Giants Won the Pennant!

The probability of this miracle was 1 in 737,984.

Compare that to the 1 in 19 trillion chance that 16 states would exceed the margin of error - all in favor of Bush.

*****************************************************
Probability (Giants winning at least 37 of 44 games):
= 1-BINOMDIST (36,44,59/110,true) = 2.16806E-05
= 1 in 46124

Probability (Dodgers winning at most 23 of 45 games):
= BINOMDIST (23,43,73/111, TRUE)
= 0.064448418
= 1 IN 16

Joint Probability of 1 and 2:
= 1 in 737,984
*****************************************************

The odds that the MoE would be exceeded in ANY given state for Bush is 1 in 40 (2.5%) at the 95% confidence level.

Probability (at least 16 states exceed the MoE for Bush):
= 1-BINOMDIST(15,50, 1/40,TRUE)
= 5.24025E-14
= 1 in 19,083,049,268,519



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