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Reply #15: The plot I think OTOH is referring to [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-23-05 12:53 AM
Response to Reply #7
15. The plot I think OTOH is referring to
is this one:



posted in this Daily Kos diary:

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2005/4/6/8028/83645

which also gives some p values.

The X axis is Kerry's state vote-count margin, so a swing state would be zero. I marked the "big three" (OH, FL and PA) in green. On the Y axis is WPE after conversion to "bias" (although this should really be done at precinct level - this was done on the state mean WPES from the E-M report).

Because of a quirk of the math, a negative WPE give a positive "bias" number so I have called that axis "Kerry over-estimate" - but before people jump down my throat, it means no more than that! That the sampling "over-estimated" Kerry's counted vote, which could just have easily meant that Kerry's vote was "under-estimated" by the count. But the axis label tells you the direction of the error. Zero is neutral, up is bad.

The other thing to bear in mind about this plot is that it represents the WPE alone. In other words the discrepancy between the proportion of voters for each candidate polled, and the proportion of fotes for each candidate counted. It doesn't include any error at the precinct-sampling level, which is why the plot may differ other plots you may have seen.

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