THE EAST WAS THE rBr BEAST
'http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.php?az=view_all&address=203x371776
Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count
Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 53% 56%
Region Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 47% Z 1in 44% Z 1in
EAST 16261 0.78% 40.40% 43.91% 47.42% 47.87% 9.53 NC 48.38% 10.18 NC
MIDW 19377 0.72% 49.72% 51.32% 52.92% 53.13% 4.74 915K 53.36% 5.06 4,730,234
SOUTH 20332 0.70% 56.25% 57.67% 59.09% 59.27% 4.31 123K 59.48% 4.61 488,097
WEST 17637 0.75% 48.19% 49.13% 50.07% 50.19% 2.64 244 50.32% 2.82 422
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Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count
EAST 16261 0.78% 40.40% 43.91% 7.02% 7.47% 9.53 NC 7.98% 10.18 NC
MIDW 19377 0.72% 49.72% 51.32% 3.20% 3.40% 4.74 915K 3.63% 5.06 4,730,234
SOUTH 20332 0.70% 56.25% 57.67% 2.84% 3.02% 4.31 123K 3.23% 4.61 488,097
WEST 17637 0.75% 48.19% 49.13% 1.87% 1.99% 2.64 244 2.13% 2.82 422
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Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count with corresponding Z-scores
Exit Poll Responders/Refusers
Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 53% 56%
EAST Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 47% Z Prob 44% Zscore Prob
CT 872 3.27% 41.53% 44.76% 6.47% 6.89% 2.11 1.76% 7.36% 2.25 1.22%
DC 795 1.92% 8.37% 9.37% 2.00% 2.13% 1.11 13.43% 2.27% 1.18 11.86%
DE 770 3.48% 41.56% 46.18% 9.24% 9.83% 2.83 0.24% 10.50% 3.02 0.13%
MA 889 3.10% 33.54% 37.30% 7.52% 8.00% 2.58 0.50% 8.55% 2.75 0.29%
MD 1000 3.07% 42.96% 43.75% 1.58% 1.68% 0.55 29.21% 1.79% 0.58 27.95%
ME 1968 2.20% 45.17% 45.52% 0.71% 0.76% 0.34 36.56% 0.81% 0.37 35.68%
NH 1849 2.27% 44.51% 49.32% 9.62% 10.24% 4.52 0.00% 10.93% 4.83 0.00%
NJ 1520 2.49% 43.87% 46.87% 6.00% 6.38% 2.56 0.53% 6.82% 2.73 0.31%
NY 1452 2.47% 36.04% 41.21% 10.34% 11.00% 4.46 0.00% 11.75% 4.76 0.00%
PA 1930 2.22% 45.59% 48.87% 6.56% 6.97% 3.14 0.08% 7.45% 3.35 0.04%
RI 809 3.30% 35.76% 39.52% 7.51% 7.99% 2.42 0.78% 8.53% 2.58 0.49%
VT 685 3.56% 34.31% 39.66% 10.70% 11.38% 3.20 0.07% 12.16% 3.42 0.03%
WV 1722 2.35% 54.81% 56.52% 3.43% 3.65% 1.55 6.01% 3.90% 1.66 4.85%
TOTAL 16261 0.78% 40.40% 43.91% 7.02% 7.47% 9.53 0.00% 7.98% 10.18 0.00%
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Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 53% 56%
MIDW Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 47% Z Prob 44% Zscore Prob
IA 2502 1.96% 49.33% 50.46% 2.26% 2.40% 1.23 11.01% 2.57% 1.31 9.5%
IL 1392 2.60% 42.87% 45.01% 4.28% 4.55% 1.75 4.01% 4.86% 1.87 3.1%
IN 926 3.17% 59.03% 60.54% 3.03% 3.22% 1.02 15.46% 3.44% 1.09 13.9%
KS 654 3.65% 65.40% 63.03% -4.74% -5.04% -1.38 8.35% -5.38% -1.48 7.0%
MI 2452 1.98% 47.45% 48.27% 1.63% 1.74% 0.88 18.96% 1.86% 0.94 17.4%
MN 2178 2.09% 45.39% 48.24% 5.70% 6.06% 2.90 0.19% 6.47% 3.10 0.1%
MO 2158 2.11% 52.53% 53.67% 2.30% 2.44% 1.16 12.32% 2.61% 1.24 10.8%
ND 649 3.63% 66.42% 63.91% -5.02% -5.34% -1.47 7.09% -5.70% -1.57 5.8%
NE 785 3.37% 63.46% 67.47% 8.02% 8.53% 2.53 0.57% 9.11% 2.70 0.3%
OH 1963 2.21% 47.94% 51.25% 6.62% 7.04% 3.19 0.07% 7.53% 3.40 0.0%
SD 1495 2.45% 62.58% 60.91% -3.34% -3.56% -1.45 7.36% -3.80% -1.55 6.1%
WI 2223 2.08% 49.79% 49.80% 0.03% 0.03% 0.02 49.39% 0.03% 0.02 49.3%
TOTAL 19377 0.72% 49.72% 51.32% 3.20% 3.40% 4.74 0.0001% 3.63% 5.06 0.0%
1 in 915,572 1 in 4,730,234
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Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 53% 56%
SOUTH Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 47% Z Prob 44% Zscore Prob
AL 730 3.57% 58.92% 62.92% 8.00% 8.51% 2.39 0.85% 9.10% 2.55 0.5%
AR 1402 2.61% 53.07% 55.26% 4.38% 4.66% 1.78 3.72% 4.98% 1.91 2.8%
FL 2846 1.84% 50.07% 52.53% 4.92% 5.24% 2.85 0.22% 5.59% 3.04 0.1%
GA 1536 2.48% 56.89% 58.42% 3.06% 3.25% 1.31 9.46% 3.47% 1.40 8.0%
KY 1034 3.00% 59.25% 60.01% 1.52% 1.62% 0.54 29.44% 1.73% 0.58 28.2%
LA 1669 2.38% 55.51% 57.37% 3.74% 3.98% 1.67 4.77% 4.25% 1.78 3.7%
MS 798 3.44% 56.80% 60.09% 6.59% 7.01% 2.04 2.06% 7.49% 2.18 1.5%
NC 2167 2.10% 52.69% 56.29% 7.19% 7.65% 3.64 0.01% 8.17% 3.89 0.0%
OK 1539 2.38% 65.27% 65.56% 0.58% 0.61% 0.26 39.80% 0.66% 0.28 39.1%
SC 1735 2.34% 54.22% 58.70% 8.96% 9.53% 4.07 0.00% 10.18% 4.34 0.0%
TN 1774 2.29% 58.85% 57.22% -3.25% -3.46% -1.51 6.53% -3.70% -1.61 5.3%
TX 1671 2.31% 63.16% 61.51% -3.30% -3.51% -1.52 6.43% -3.75% -1.62 5.2%
VA 1431 2.59% 52.04% 54.35% 4.62% 4.91% 1.90 2.88% 5.25% 2.03 2.1%
TOTAL 20332 0.70% 56.25% 57.67% 2.84% 3.02% 4.31 0.0008% 3.23% 4.61 0.0%
1 in 123,840 1 in 488,097
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Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 53% 56%
WEST Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 47% Z Prob 44% Zscore Prob
AK 910 3.18% 59.86% 63.83% 7.94% 8.45% 2.65 0.40% 9.02% 2.83 0.2%
AZ 1859 2.27% 53.40% 54.97% 3.14% 3.34% 1.47 7.05% 3.57% 1.57 5.8%
CA 1919 2.22% 44.27% 44.79% 1.05% 1.12% 0.50 30.73% 1.20% 0.54 29.5%
CO 2515 1.95% 50.93% 52.65% 3.45% 3.67% 1.88 3.03% 3.92% 2.00 2.3%
HI 499 4.38% 46.68% 45.63% -2.11% -2.24% -0.51 30.44% -2.39% -0.55 29.2%
ID 559 3.91% 66.67% 69.29% 5.25% 5.59% 1.43 7.64% 5.97% 1.53 6.3%
MT 640 3.78% 60.72% 60.50% -0.45% -0.47% -0.13 45.01% -0.51% -0.13 44.7%
NM 1951 2.22% 48.66% 50.58% 3.85% 4.10% 1.85 3.23% 4.38% 1.97 2.4%
NV 2116 2.13% 49.34% 51.33% 3.99% 4.24% 1.99 2.32% 4.53% 2.13 1.7%
OR 1064 3.00% 48.78% 48.03% -1.49% -1.59% -0.53 29.86% -1.70% -0.56 28.6%
UT 798 3.18% 70.07% 72.94% 5.74% 6.10% 1.92 2.74% 6.52% 2.05 2.0%
WA 2123 2.12% 44.93% 46.40% 2.94% 3.12% 1.48 7.00% 3.34% 1.58 5.7%
WY 684 3.50% 67.93% 70.30% 4.74% 5.04% 1.44 7.49% 5.38% 1.54 6.2%
TOTAL 17637 0.75% 48.19% 49.13% 1.87% 1.99% 2.64 0.41% 2.13% 2.82 0.2%
1 in 244 1 in 422