Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count Includes corresponding Z-scores and
probabilities.
Exit Poll Responders/Refusers
Zscore = number of standard deviations
Z= %Dev/(MoE/1.96)
Prob = probability (Z)
Sample Exit Bush 2-prty 50% 51% 52% 53% Zscore Prob
EAST Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% StdDev
CT 872 3.27% 41.53% 44.76% 6.47% 6.61% 6.74% 6.89% 1.07 14.13%
DC 795 1.92% 8.37% 9.37% 2.00% 2.04% 2.09% 2.13% 0.56 28.62%
DE 770 3.48% 41.56% 46.18% 9.24% 9.43% 9.63% 9.83% 1.44 7.47%
MA 889 3.10% 33.54% 37.30% 7.52% 7.68% 7.84% 8.00% 1.32 9.41%
MD 1000 3.07% 42.96% 43.75% 1.58% 1.61% 1.64% 1.68% 0.28 39.01%
ME 1968 2.20% 45.17% 45.52% 0.71% 0.72% 0.74% 0.76% 0.18 43.04%
NH 1849 2.27% 44.51% 49.32% 9.62% 9.82% 10.02% 10.24% 2.31 1.06%
NJ 1520 2.49% 43.87% 46.87% 6.00% 6.12% 6.25% 6.38% 1.30 9.60%
NY 1452 2.47% 36.04% 41.21% 10.34% 10.56% 10.78% 11.00% 2.27 1.15%
PA 1930 2.22% 45.59% 0.4887 6.56% 6.69% 6.83% 6.97% 1.60 5.46%
RI 809 3.30% 35.76% 0.39518 7.51% 7.66% 7.82% 7.99% 1.23 10.86%
VT 685 3.56% 34.31% 0.39664 10.70% 10.92% 11.15% 11.38% 1.63 5.12%
WV 1722 2.35% 54.81% 56.52% 3.43% 3.50% 3.58% 3.65% 0.79 21.39%
TOTAL 16261 0.78% 40.40% 43.91% 7.02% 7.17% 7.32% 7.47% 4.86 0.00%
Sample Exit Bush 2-prty 50% 51% 52% 53% Zscore Prob
MIDW Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% StDev
IA 2502 1.96% 49.33% 50.46% 2.26% 2.30% 2.35% 2.40% 0.63 26.58%
IL 1392 2.60% 42.87% 45.01% 4.28% 4.36% 4.45% 4.55% 0.89 18.60%
IN 926 3.17% 59.03% 60.54% 3.03% 3.09% 3.15% 3.22% 0.52 30.19%
KS 654 3.65% 65.40% 63.03% -4.74% -4.83% -4.93% -5.04% -0.71 24.04%
MI 2452 1.98% 47.45% 48.27% 1.63% 1.67% 1.70% 1.74% 0.45 32.68%
MN 2178 2.09% 45.39% 48.24% 5.70% 5.81% 5.93% 6.06% 1.48 6.96%
MO 2158 2.11% 52.53% 53.67% 2.30% 2.34% 2.39% 2.44% 0.59 27.71%
ND 649 3.63% 66.42% 63.91% -5.02% -5.12% -5.23% -5.34% -0.75 22.67%
NE 785 3.37% 63.46% 0.67467 8.02% 8.18% 8.35% 8.53% 1.29 9.83%
OH 1963 2.21% 47.94% 0.51251 6.62% 6.76% 6.90% 7.04% 1.63 5.19%
SD 1495 2.45% 62.58% 0.60912 -3.34% -3.41% -3.48% -3.56% -0.74 22.88%
WI 2223 2.08% 49.79% 49.80% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.03% 0.01 49.69%
TOTAL 19377 0.72% 49.72% 51.32% 3.20% 3.26% 3.33% 3.40% 2.42 0.78%
Sample Exit Bush 2-prty 50% 51% 52% 53% Zscore Prob
SOUTH Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% StDev
AL 730 3.57% 58.92% 62.92% 8.00% 8.17% 8.34% 8.51% 1.22 11.18%
AR 1402 2.61% 53.07% 55.26% 4.38% 4.47% 4.56% 4.66% 0.91 18.13%
FL 2846 1.84% 50.07% 52.53% 4.92% 5.02% 5.13% 5.24% 1.45 7.29%
GA 1536 2.48% 56.89% 58.42% 3.06% 3.12% 3.18% 3.25% 0.67 25.15%
KY 1034 3.00% 59.25% 60.01% 1.52% 1.55% 1.59% 1.62% 0.28 39.13%
LA 1669 2.38% 55.51% 57.37% 3.74% 3.81% 3.89% 3.98% 0.85 19.74%
MS 798 3.44% 56.80% 60.09% 6.59% 6.73% 6.87% 7.01% 1.04 14.89%
NC 2167 2.10% 52.69% 56.29% 7.19% 7.34% 7.49% 7.65% 1.86 3.16%
OK 1539 2.38% 65.27% 65.56% 0.58% 0.59% 0.60% 0.61% 0.13 44.75%
SC 1735 2.34% 54.22% 0.58695 8.96% 9.14% 9.33% 9.53% 2.07 1.90%
TN 1774 2.29% 58.85% 0.5722 -3.25% -3.32% -3.39% -3.46% -0.77 22.03%
TX 1671 2.31% 63.16% 0.6151 -3.30% -3.37% -3.44% -3.51% -0.78 21.91%
VA 1431 2.59% 52.04% 54.35% 4.62% 4.71% 4.81% 4.91% 0.97 16.63%
TOTAL 20332 0.70% 56.25% 57.67% 2.84% 2.90% 2.96% 3.02% 2.20 1.39%
Sample Exit Bush 2-prty 50% 51% 52% 53% Zscore Prob
WEST Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% StDev
AK 910 3.18% 59.86% 63.83% 7.94% 8.10% 8.27% 8.45% 1.35 8.80%
AZ 1859 2.27% 53.40% 54.97% 3.14% 3.20% 3.27% 3.34% 0.75 22.63%
CA 1919 2.22% 44.27% 44.79% 1.05% 1.07% 1.10% 1.12% 0.26 39.86%
CO 2515 1.95% 50.93% 52.65% 3.45% 3.52% 3.59% 3.67% 0.96 16.92%
HI 499 4.38% 46.68% 45.63% -2.11% -2.15% -2.19% -2.24% -0.26 39.70%
ID 559 3.91% 66.67% 69.29% 5.25% 5.36% 5.47% 5.59% 0.73 23.29%
MT 640 3.78% 60.72% 60.50% -0.45% -0.46% -0.46% -0.47% -0.06 52.55%
NM 1951 2.22% 48.66% 50.58% 3.85% 3.93% 4.01% 4.10% 0.94 17.28%
NV 2116 2.13% 49.34% 51.33% 3.99% 4.07% 4.15% 4.24% 1.02 15.48%
OR 1064 3.00% 48.78% 48.03% -1.49% -1.52% -1.55% -1.59% -0.27 39.37%
UT 798 3.18% 70.07% 72.94% 5.74% 5.86% 5.98% 6.10% 0.98 16.35%
WA 2123 2.12% 44.93% 46.40% 2.94% 3.00% 3.06% 3.12% 0.75 22.57%
WY 684 3.50% 67.93% 70.30% 4.74% 4.83% 4.93% 5.04% 0.73 23.12%
TOTAL 17637 0.75% 48.19% 49.13% 1.87% 1.91% 1.95% 1.99% 1.35 8.87%