Reply #7: DEVIATIONS FROM MOE & PROBABILITIES ASSUMING A 53% RESPONSE RATE

[TruthIsAll]

Percent Deviation from Exit Poll Required to Match Bush Vote
Count Includes corresponding Z-scores and
probabilities.									
					Exit Poll Responders/Refusers			

Zscore = number of standard deviations
      Z= %Dev/(MoE/1.96)
Prob = probability (Z)
	
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StdDev	

CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	6.47%	6.61%	6.74%	6.89%	1.07	14.13%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	2.00%	2.04%	2.09%	2.13%	0.56	28.62%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	9.24%	9.43%	9.63%	9.83%	1.44	7.47%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	7.52%	7.68%	7.84%	8.00%	1.32	9.41%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	1.58%	1.61%	1.64%	1.68%	0.28	39.01%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	0.71%	0.72%	0.74%	0.76%	0.18	43.04%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	9.62%	9.82%	10.02%	10.24%	2.31	1.06%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	6.00%	6.12%	6.25%	6.38%	1.30	9.60%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	10.34%	10.56%	10.78%	11.00%	2.27	1.15%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	0.4887	6.56%	6.69%	6.83%	6.97%	1.60	5.46%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	0.39518	7.51%	7.66%	7.82%	7.99%	1.23	10.86%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	0.39664	10.70%	10.92%	11.15%	11.38%	1.63	5.12%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	3.43%	3.50%	3.58%	3.65%	0.79	21.39%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	7.02%	7.17%	7.32%	7.47%	4.86	0.00%
										
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StDev	

IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	2.26%	2.30%	2.35%	2.40%	0.63	26.58%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	4.28%	4.36%	4.45%	4.55%	0.89	18.60%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	3.03%	3.09%	3.15%	3.22%	0.52	30.19%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	-4.74%	-4.83%	-4.93%	-5.04%	-0.71	24.04%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	1.63%	1.67%	1.70%	1.74%	0.45	32.68%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	5.70%	5.81%	5.93%	6.06%	1.48	6.96%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	2.30%	2.34%	2.39%	2.44%	0.59	27.71%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	-5.02%	-5.12%	-5.23%	-5.34%	-0.75	22.67%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	0.67467	8.02%	8.18%	8.35%	8.53%	1.29	9.83%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	0.51251	6.62%	6.76%	6.90%	7.04%	1.63	5.19%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	0.60912	-3.34%	-3.41%	-3.48%	-3.56%	-0.74	22.88%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.03%	0.01	49.69%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	3.20%	3.26%	3.33%	3.40%	2.42	0.78%
										
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StDev

AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	8.00%	8.17%	8.34%	8.51%	1.22	11.18%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	4.38%	4.47%	4.56%	4.66%	0.91	18.13%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	4.92%	5.02%	5.13%	5.24%	1.45	7.29%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	3.06%	3.12%	3.18%	3.25%	0.67	25.15%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	1.52%	1.55%	1.59%	1.62%	0.28	39.13%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	3.74%	3.81%	3.89%	3.98%	0.85	19.74%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	6.59%	6.73%	6.87%	7.01%	1.04	14.89%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	7.19%	7.34%	7.49%	7.65%	1.86	3.16%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	0.58%	0.59%	0.60%	0.61%	0.13	44.75%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	0.58695	8.96%	9.14%	9.33%	9.53%	2.07	1.90%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	0.5722	-3.25%	-3.32%	-3.39%	-3.46%	-0.77	22.03%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	0.6151	-3.30%	-3.37%	-3.44%	-3.51%	-0.78	21.91%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	4.62%	4.71%	4.81%	4.91%	0.97	16.63%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	2.84%	2.90%	2.96%	3.02%	2.20	1.39%
										
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-prty	50%	51%	52%	53%	Zscore	Prob
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	StDev	

AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	7.94%	8.10%	8.27%	8.45%	1.35	8.80%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	3.14%	3.20%	3.27%	3.34%	0.75	22.63%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	1.05%	1.07%	1.10%	1.12%	0.26	39.86%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	3.45%	3.52%	3.59%	3.67%	0.96	16.92%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	-2.11%	-2.15%	-2.19%	-2.24%	-0.26	39.70%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	5.25%	5.36%	5.47%	5.59%	0.73	23.29%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	-0.45%	-0.46%	-0.46%	-0.47%	-0.06	52.55%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	3.85%	3.93%	4.01%	4.10%	0.94	17.28%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	3.99%	4.07%	4.15%	4.24%	1.02	15.48%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	-1.49%	-1.52%	-1.55%	-1.59%	-0.27	39.37%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	5.74%	5.86%	5.98%	6.10%	0.98	16.35%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	2.94%	3.00%	3.06%	3.12%	0.75	22.57%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	4.74%	4.83%	4.93%	5.04%	0.73	23.12%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	1.87%	1.91%	1.95%	1.99%	1.35	8.87%