You caught me there.
Usually I catch them myself.
In fact, you are the second to do so.
At least the 50% column was right.
In any case, Bush had to do MUCH BETTER among refusers to make
up the differences, but not nearly as much as I originally
calculated.
In December I calculated the odds of Bush exceeding the MoE in
16 states. I had it at 1 in 200 trillion. A fellow DUer
pointed out an input parameter error in the normal
distribution Excel probability function.
The correct probability was 1 in 13.5 trillion.
Clearly, I overstated the case.
Exit Poll Responders/Refusers
50% 51% 55% 56%
50% 49% 45% 44%
CT CT UT UT
V= Bush Vote 44.76% 44.76% 72.94% 72.94%
N= respondents 872 872 798 798
R= response rate 50% 51% 54% 56%
T = responders+refusers 1744 1710 1478 1425
BP= Bush 2-party poll 41.53% 41.53% 70.07% 70.07%
NB = Bush Respondents 362 362 559 559
NK = Kerry respondents 510 510 239 239
RBT= REQ. TOTAL BUSH 781 765 1078 1039
NB = BUSH RESPONDENTS 362 362 559 559
RNB= REQ. BUSH REFUSERS 419 403 519 480
NR = TOTAL REFUSERS 872 838 680 627
RB = RNB/NR 48.00% 48.13% 76.31% 76.59%
************************************************************
Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count
Exit Poll Responders/Refusers
Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56%
EAST Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
CT 872 3.27% 41.53% 44.76% 48.00% 48.13% 48.27% 48.41% 48.56% 48.72% 48.88%
DC 795 1.92% 8.37% 9.37% 10.37% 10.41% 10.45% 10.50% 10.54% 10.59% 10.64%
DE 770 3.48% 41.56% 46.18% 50.81% 50.99% 51.19% 51.40% 51.61% 51.83% 52.07%
MA 889 3.10% 33.54% 37.30% 41.06% 41.21% 41.37% 41.54% 41.72% 41.90% 42.09%
MD 1000 3.07% 42.96% 43.75% 44.54% 44.57% 44.61% 44.64% 44.68% 44.72% 44.76%
ME 1968 2.20% 45.17% 45.52% 45.88% 45.89% 45.91% 45.92% 45.94% 45.95% 45.97%
NH 1849 2.27% 44.51% 49.32% 54.13% 54.32% 54.53% 54.74% 54.96% 55.20% 55.44%
NJ 1520 2.49% 43.87% 46.87% 49.87% 49.99% 50.12% 50.25% 50.39% 50.54% 50.69%
NY 1452 2.47% 36.04% 41.21% 46.38% 46.59% 46.81% 47.04% 47.28% 47.53% 47.79%
PA 1930 2.22% 45.59% 48.87% 52.15% 52.28% 52.42% 52.57% 52.72% 52.88% 53.04%
RI 809 3.30% 35.76% 39.52% 43.27% 43.43% 43.59% 43.75% 43.93% 44.11% 44.30%
VT 685 3.56% 34.31% 39.66% 45.01% 45.23% 45.46% 45.70% 45.94% 46.20% 46.47%
WV 1722 2.35% 54.81% 56.52% 58.24% 58.31% 58.38% 58.46% 58.54% 58.62% 58.71%
TOTAL 16261 0.78% 40.40% 43.91% 47.42% 47.57% 47.72% 47.87% 48.03% 48.20% 48.38%
Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56%
MIDW Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
IA 2502 1.96% 49.33% 50.46% 51.59% 51.63% 51.68% 51.73% 51.78% 51.84% 51.89%
IL 1392 2.60% 42.87% 45.01% 47.15% 47.23% 47.32% 47.42% 47.52% 47.62% 47.73%
IN 926 3.17% 59.03% 60.54% 62.06% 62.12% 62.18% 62.25% 62.32% 62.39% 62.47%
KS 654 3.65% 65.40% 63.03% 60.66% 60.57% 60.46% 60.36% 60.25% 60.14% 60.02%
MI 2452 1.98% 47.45% 48.27% 49.08% 49.12% 49.15% 49.19% 49.23% 49.26% 49.31%
MN 2178 2.09% 45.39% 48.24% 51.08% 51.20% 51.32% 51.45% 51.58% 51.72% 51.86%
MO 2158 2.11% 52.53% 53.67% 54.82% 54.87% 54.92% 54.97% 55.02% 55.08% 55.13%
ND 649 3.63% 66.42% 63.91% 61.41% 61.30% 61.20% 61.08% 60.97% 60.85% 60.72%
NE 785 3.37% 63.46% 67.47% 71.48% 71.64% 71.81% 71.99% 72.17% 72.37% 72.57%
OH 1963 2.21% 47.94% 51.25% 54.56% 54.70% 54.84% 54.98% 55.14% 55.30% 55.47%
SD 1495 2.45% 62.58% 60.91% 59.24% 59.17% 59.10% 59.03% 58.95% 58.87% 58.79%
WI 2223 2.08% 49.79% 49.80% 49.82% 49.82% 49.82% 49.82% 49.82% 49.82% 49.82%
TOTAL 19377 0.72% 49.72% 51.32% 52.92% 52.99% 53.06% 53.13% 53.20% 53.28% 53.36%
Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56%
SOUTH Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
AL 730 3.57% 58.92% 62.92% 66.92% 67.09% 67.26% 67.43% 67.62% 67.81% 68.02%
AR 1402 2.61% 53.07% 55.26% 57.45% 57.54% 57.63% 57.73% 57.83% 57.94% 58.05%
FL 2846 1.84% 50.07% 52.53% 54.99% 55.09% 55.20% 55.31% 55.42% 55.54% 55.66%
GA 1536 2.48% 56.89% 58.42% 59.95% 60.01% 60.07% 60.14% 60.21% 60.29% 60.36%
KY 1034 3.00% 59.25% 60.01% 60.77% 60.80% 60.83% 60.86% 60.90% 60.94% 60.97%
LA 1669 2.38% 55.51% 57.37% 59.24% 59.32% 59.40% 59.48% 59.57% 59.66% 59.75%
MS 798 3.44% 56.80% 60.09% 63.39% 63.53% 63.67% 63.81% 63.96% 64.12% 64.29%
NC 2167 2.10% 52.69% 56.29% 59.88% 60.03% 60.18% 60.34% 60.51% 60.68% 60.86%
OK 1539 2.38% 65.27% 65.56% 65.85% 65.86% 65.88% 65.89% 65.90% 65.92% 65.93%
SC 1735 2.34% 54.22% 58.70% 63.18% 63.36% 63.55% 63.75% 63.95% 64.17% 64.40%
TN 1774 2.29% 58.85% 57.22% 55.59% 55.53% 55.46% 55.39% 55.31% 55.23% 55.15%
TX 1671 2.31% 63.16% 61.51% 59.86% 59.79% 59.72% 59.65% 59.57% 59.49% 59.41%
VA 1431 2.59% 52.04% 54.35% 56.66% 56.76% 56.85% 56.96% 57.06% 57.17% 57.29%
TOTAL 20332 0.70% 56.25% 57.67% 59.09% 59.15% 59.21% 59.27% 59.34% 59.41% 59.48%
Sample Exit Bush 2-party 50% 51% 52% 53% 54% 55% 56%
WEST Size MoE Poll Vote 50% 49% 48% 47% 46% 45% 44%
AK 910 3.18% 59.86% 63.83% 67.80% 67.96% 68.13% 68.31% 68.49% 68.68% 68.88%
AZ 1859 2.27% 53.40% 54.97% 56.54% 56.61% 56.67% 56.74% 56.81% 56.89% 56.97%
CA 1919 2.22% 44.27% 44.79% 45.32% 45.34% 45.36% 45.39% 45.41% 45.44% 45.46%
CO 2515 1.95% 50.93% 52.65% 54.37% 54.44% 54.52% 54.59% 54.67% 54.76% 54.84%
HI 499 4.38% 46.68% 45.63% 44.57% 44.53% 44.49% 44.44% 44.39% 44.34% 44.29%
ID 559 3.91% 66.67% 69.29% 71.92% 72.03% 72.14% 72.25% 72.38% 72.50% 72.64%
MT 640 3.78% 60.72% 60.50% 60.27% 60.26% 60.25% 60.24% 60.23% 60.22% 60.21%
NM 1951 2.22% 48.66% 50.58% 52.51% 52.59% 52.67% 52.76% 52.85% 52.94% 53.04%
NV 2116 2.13% 49.34% 51.33% 53.33% 53.41% 53.49% 53.58% 53.67% 53.77% 53.87%
OR 1064 3.00% 48.78% 48.03% 47.29% 47.25% 47.22% 47.19% 47.16% 47.12% 47.08%
UT 798 3.18% 70.07% 72.94% 75.81% 75.93% 76.05% 76.17% 76.31% 76.45% 76.59%
WA 2123 2.12% 44.93% 46.40% 47.87% 47.93% 47.99% 48.06% 48.13% 48.20% 48.27%
WY 684 3.50% 67.93% 70.30% 72.66% 72.76% 72.86% 72.97% 73.08% 73.19% 73.31%
TOTAL 17637 0.75% 48.19% 49.13% 50.07% 50.10% 50.14% 50.19% 50.23% 50.27% 50.32%
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