IS rBr STILL BREATHING? THE REQUIRED BUSH % OF REFUSERS IS IMPOSSIBLE!

[TruthIsAll]

How implausible is the rBr hypothesis? 

This straightforward sensitivity analysis will show that rBr
is, well, a canard, a fiction which has no basis in reality.
Its only purpose is to provide a conjecture (other than fraud)
to explain away the discrepancies - even if the scientific
method is thrown overboard in the process. But the silent
scream of the numbers can no longer be ignored.

For Bush to end up with his state vote percentages, he needed
to pick up an impossible percentage of those who refused to be
exit-polled.

It's that simple.
KISS.

Let's look at the individual states, by region. 

We know the number of exit poll respondents for each state. We
will calculate the percentage of exit poll refusers that Bush
needed to carry to obtain his final 2-party state percentage
(just consider Bush and Kerry). 

The tables below display the percentage of Reluctant
Responders required for Bush to reach his actual vote count
from the state exit poll results.

For example, consider CT:
If we assume that 51% responded to the exit poll (872), then a
total of 1710 = 872/.51 were asked. Therefore 838 = 1710 - 872
refused.

For Bush to go from 41.53% in the poll to his recorded 44.76%
vote, he needed 51.86% of the 49% who refused. 

Obviously, as the response rate increases, the percentage  of
Bush refusers to reach his final state vote must also
increase. He needs a larger percentage of a smaller set of
refusers.

The input parameters to calculate RB, the Required Bush % of
Refusers are the following:

V= 44.76% (Bush 2-party vote)
N= 872 respondents
R= 51% response rate
T= 1710 total responders + refusers
NB = 362 = 872/.4153 (Bush Respondents)
NK = 872 - 362 = 510 (Kerry respondents) 

RB = (V*N/(1-R)-NB)/(N/R - N)

RB = 51.86% = (.4476 * 872/(1-.51) -362)/(872/.51 - 872)
RB = 51.86% = (.4476 * 1779.6 - 362) /(1709.8 - 872)
RB = 51.86% = 434.5/837.8




Percent of Reluctant Responders Required to Match Bush Vote
Count										
						Exit Poll Responders/Refusers					
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
EAST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
CT	872	3.27%	41.53%	44.76%	48.00%	51.86%	56.04%	60.57%	65.49%	70.82%	76.63%
DC	795	1.92%	8.37%	9.37%	10.37%	11.19%	12.08%	13.04%	14.08%	15.22%	16.45%
DE	770	3.48%	41.56%	46.18%	50.81%	54.84%	59.21%	63.94%	69.07%	74.64%	80.69%
MA	889	3.10%	33.54%	37.30%	41.06%	44.32%	47.85%	51.67%	55.82%	60.32%	65.21%
MD	1000	3.07%	42.96%	43.75%	44.54%	48.22%	52.20%	56.52%	61.22%	66.32%	71.87%

ME	1968	2.20%	45.17%	45.52%	45.88%	49.68%	53.81%	58.29%	63.15%	68.43%	74.19%
NH	1849	2.27%	44.51%	49.32%	54.13%	58.43%	63.09%	68.14%	73.61%	79.55%	86.01%
NJ	1520	2.49%	43.87%	46.87%	49.87%	53.90%	58.26%	62.99%	68.11%	73.69%	79.74%
NY	1452	2.47%	36.04%	41.21%	46.38%	50.02%	53.96%	58.23%	62.86%	67.88%	73.33%
PA	1930	2.22%	45.59%	48.87%	52.15%	56.35%	60.91%	65.84%	71.19%	77.01%	83.33%

RI	809	3.30%	35.76%	39.52%	43.27%	46.72%	50.45%	54.49%	58.87%	63.62%	68.79%
VT	685	3.56%	34.31%	39.66%	45.01%	48.54%	52.35%	56.47%	60.94%	65.79%	71.06%
WV	1722	2.35%	54.81%	56.52%	58.24%	63.02%	68.20%	73.81%	79.91%	86.53%	93.74%

TOTAL	16261	0.78%	40.40%	43.91%	46.46%	50.22%	54.30%	58.71%	63.50%	68.71%	74.37%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
MIDW	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
IA	2502	1.96%	49.33%	50.46%	51.59%	55.83%	60.44%	65.43%	70.86%	76.75%	83.17%
IL	1392	2.60%	42.87%	45.01%	47.15%	50.98%	55.14%	59.64%	64.53%	69.85%	75.62%
IN	926	3.17%	59.03%	60.54%	62.06%	67.16%	72.70%	78.70%	85.21%	92.29%	100.00%
KS	654	3.65%	65.40%	63.03%	60.66%	55.91%	51.52%	47.47%	43.72%	40.26%	37.05%
MI	2452	1.98%	47.45%	48.27%	49.08%	53.14%	57.53%	62.30%	67.47%	73.10%	79.22%

MN	2178	2.09%	45.39%	48.24%	51.08%	55.22%	59.70%	64.55%	69.82%	75.54%	81.76%
MO	2158	2.11%	52.53%	53.67%	54.82%	59.34%	64.23%	69.55%	75.31%	81.58%	88.40%
ND	649	3.63%	66.42%	63.91%	61.41%	56.59%	52.14%	48.04%	44.24%	40.73%	37.49%
NE	785	3.37%	63.46%	67.47%	71.48%	77.26%	83.52%	90.31%	97.68%	105.68%	114.39%
OH	1963	2.21%	47.94%	51.25%	54.56%	58.97%	63.74%	68.91%	74.51%	80.61%	87.23%

SD	1495	2.45%	62.58%	60.91%	59.24%	54.62%	50.36%	46.42%	42.78%	39.41%	36.29%
WI	2223	2.08%	49.79%	49.80%	49.82%	53.96%	58.46%	63.34%	68.65%	74.41%	80.69%

TOTAL	19377	0.72%	49.72%	51.32%	51.02%	55.28%	59.91%	64.92%	70.37%	76.30%	82.75%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
SOUTH	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
AL	730	3.57%	58.92%	62.92%	66.92%	72.33%	78.18%	84.53%	91.41%	98.89%	107.02%
AR	1402	2.61%	53.07%	55.26%	57.45%	62.14%	67.23%	72.74%	78.72%	85.23%	92.30%
FL	2846	1.84%	50.07%	52.53%	54.99%	59.47%	64.32%	69.57%	75.28%	81.48%	88.22%
GA	1536	2.48%	56.89%	58.42%	59.95%	64.87%	70.22%	76.01%	82.30%	89.13%	96.57%
KY	1034	3.00%	59.25%	60.01%	60.77%	65.80%	71.25%	77.16%	83.59%	90.57%	98.17%

LA	1669	2.38%	55.51%	57.37%	59.24%	64.10%	69.36%	75.07%	81.26%	87.99%	95.32%
MS	798	3.44%	56.80%	60.09%	63.39%	68.53%	74.10%	80.13%	86.68%	93.80%	101.54%
NC	2167	2.10%	52.69%	56.29%	59.88%	64.72%	69.95%	75.63%	81.79%	88.48%	95.75%
OK	1539	2.38%	65.27%	65.56%	65.85%	71.32%	77.26%	83.70%	90.69%	98.29%	106.57%
SC	1735	2.34%	54.22%	58.70%	63.18%	68.25%	73.74%	79.69%	86.15%	93.16%	100.78%

TN	1774	2.29%	58.85%	57.22%	55.59%	51.26%	47.25%	43.56%	40.14%	36.97%	34.05%
TX	1671	2.31%	63.16%	61.51%	59.86%	55.19%	50.89%	46.91%	43.23%	39.82%	36.68%
VA	1431	2.59%	52.04%	54.35%	56.66%	61.28%	66.29%	71.72%	77.61%	84.01%	90.98%

TOTAL	20332	0.70%	56.25%	57.67%	59.29%	64.16%	69.44%	75.16%	81.38%	88.13%	95.48%
											
	Sample	Exit	Bush 2-party	50%	51%	52%	53%	54%	55%	56%
WEST	Size	MoE	Poll	Vote	50%	49%	48%	47%	46%	45%	44%
AK	910	3.18%	59.86%	63.83%	67.80%	73.28%	79.21%	85.65%	92.62%	100.20%	108.45%
AZ	1859	2.27%	53.40%	54.97%	56.54%	61.19%	66.22%	71.67%	77.60%	84.04%	91.04%
CA	1919	2.22%	44.27%	44.79%	45.32%	49.07%	53.14%	57.55%	62.35%	67.56%	73.23%
CO	2515	1.95%	50.93%	52.65%	54.37%	58.83%	63.66%	68.89%	74.58%	80.76%	87.48%
HI	499	4.38%	46.68%	45.63%	44.57%	41.11%	37.91%	34.95%	32.21%	29.68%	27.34%

ID	559	3.91%	66.67%	69.29%	71.92%	77.80%	84.17%	91.08%	98.57%	106.72%	115.59%
MT	640	3.78%	60.72%	60.50%	60.27%	55.63%	51.34%	47.38%	43.71%	40.31%	37.17%
NM	1951	2.22%	48.66%	50.58%	52.51%	56.80%	61.45%	66.50%	71.97%	77.92%	84.39%
NV	2116	2.13%	49.34%	51.33%	53.33%	57.69%	62.41%	67.53%	73.08%	79.12%	85.69%
OR	1064	3.00%	48.78%	48.03%	47.29%	43.62%	40.24%	37.11%	34.22%	31.54%	29.07%

UT	798	3.18%	70.07%	72.94%	75.81%	82.00%	88.71%	95.99%	103.88%	112.46%	121.80%
WA	2123	2.12%	44.93%	46.40%	47.87%	51.80%	56.05%	60.66%	65.67%	71.11%	77.03%
WY	684	3.50%	67.93%	70.30%	72.66%	78.62%	85.07%	92.06%	99.65%	107.90%	116.88%

TOTAL	17637	0.75%	48.19%	49.13%	46.37%	50.35%	54.67%	59.36%	64.46%	70.02%	76.07%