Reply #2: Yup

[Febble]

You are getting there.

Keep reading. Non-response bias is a fascinating subject. As you will realise, of course, it is not simple - if only we could predict non-response on the basis of income alone!

Wouldn't life be easy for us guys with the spreadsheets!

But it's a start. Now, maybe try a chapter on political views....

And perhaps think about the question: what kind of voter (and remember there are reluctant Bush AND Kerry responders out there) might be shy? Not those loud Miami Dade types, no, definitely not. Not those guys with the brash bumper stickers, definitely not them. Kerry voters in evangelical churches - they might be shy, certainly. And what about Bush voters who normally don't vote at all? The ones who only turnout in very high turnout years? Like 1992, when the exit polls were also discrepant with the count? They might be shy. Now, which voter group is likely to be the shyest? It's going to be neck and neck....


Could be a few more Bushies. Could be a few more Kerryites. In which case, maybe there was fraud....

Decisions, decisions....

Math is SO much easier, isn't it? But psychology is so much fun.