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NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH.. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 04:13 PM
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NON-RESPONSE BIAS? HERE'S WHY IT HURT KERRY MORE THAN BUSH..
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Edited on Sat May-14-05 04:58 PM by TruthIsAll
Another Dagger in the Heart of rBr.

From Statistics for Business and Economics: 
Heinz Kohler 
Second Edition

I quote from Chapter 2: Surveys and Experiments.

Faulty questionnaire design, can, finally, be responsible for
NONRESPONSE BIAS, a systematic tendency for selected
elementary units with particular characteristics not to
contribute data in a survey while other such units, with other
characteristics, do. In the presence of this problem, even a
census based on a perfect frame, or perfectly selected random
sample, will fail. 

They will yield faulty conclusions because the data actually
collected will in fact constitute a convenience sample (for
example, of the MOST STRONGLY OPINIONATED PEOPLE among all the
people that were supposed to be in the survey).

 Questionnaire features that contribute to non-response bias
include a physically unattractive design; hard-to-read-print;
questions that are boring, unclear, or long and involved; an
excessive number of questions; bad sequencing of questions (so
that respondents are forced to jump back and forth from topic
to topic), and, in the case of multiple-choice questions, the
specification of answers that are not mutually exclusive or
are excessively restricted to particular points of view, while
omitting other possible views. 

Experience shows that HIGH-INCOME people and LOW-INCOME people
(unlike MIDDLE-INCOME PEOPLE) tend NOT to respond to surveys;
it is easy to see how the exclusion of either group is apt to
bias survey results.

Now look at the National Exit Poll (13047) income demographic.
Low-income people (under $50,000) comprise 46% and high-income
(over $100,000) 18% of the voting mix. 

Kerry voters comprise the vast majority  (57%) of voters under
50,000. Bush voters are 54% of the high income group.

For Kerry the weighted total is .57 *. 46  = 26.2%
For Bush, the weighting is .54 * .18 =  9.7%.
Advantage Bush. Fewer non-respondents.

Strongly-opinionated people are people like the Republicans
whose riot terminated the Dade County Recount in 2000. They
would NOT be reluctant to fill out the survey - cause they
ain't shy. 
Advantage Bush. Fewer non-respondents.

On the other hand, as Peace Patriot has so eloquently pointed
out, Republicans who voted for Kerry could very well have been
reluctant responders. THAT'S A HYPOTHESIS WHICH MAKES SENSE.
THERE IS A RATIONALE TO IT. YOU CAN UNDERSTAND IT.

ON THE CONTRARY, rBr is TOTALLY DEVOID OF RATIONALE. NAYSAYERS
PROMOTE THE HYPOTHESIS WITHOUT CITING A SINGLE FACT TO BACK IT
UP. THEY JUST THROW IT OUT THERE BECAUSE THEY HAVE NO OTHER
EXPLANATION FOR THE 6% DIFFERENTIAL RESPONSE - EXCEPT FOR
FRAUD.

BASED ON THE INCOME DEMOGRAPHIC ALONE, COULD IT BE THAT KERRY
WON THE ELECTION BY THE SAME 53-47% DIFFERENTIAL? 
WHY WON'T THEY HYPOTHESIZE THAT?

And if there was a differential response, we have just
provided a RATIONALE for why it most likely would have hurt
Kerry more than Bush. In which case Kerry may have won the
election by more than the 51%-47.5% spread shown here:

INCOME	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader
0-$15K 	9.0%	33%	66%	1%
$15-30 	15.0%	39%	59%	2%
$30-50 	22.0%	47%	52%	1%

$50-75 	23.0%	53%	45%	2%
75-100 	13.0%	50%	49%	1%

100-150 11.0%	53%	45%	2%
150-200 4.0%	53%	47%	0
200+ 	3.0%	58%	41%	1%

	100%	47.54%	51.01%	1.45%
	122.26	58.12	62.36	1.77

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