Reply #10: Febble, in case you are lurking, I shall respond...

[TruthIsAll]

"Are you seriously saying it is impossible that votes were switched in those proportions to Bush"?

Yes, I'm saying exactly that.
Do the math.
You surprise me.

Run the normal distribution function as I did to determine the probability of Bush more than reversing the percentages over the approximate 13000 who refused to be interviewed.

To wit: In order to get 51.24% of the 2-party vote, Bush had to
improve from the 49.50% of the 53% who responded to 53.20% of the 47% who refused:

Here's the probability calculation:

P = NORMDIST(0.495,0.532,0.01/1.96,TRUE)
P = 2.07E-13

or 1 in 4,834,782,208,664
One in 4.8 trillion.

Looks impossible to me.
Doesn't it to you?
How do you like THAT Fancy TIA Function?

Oh, yes, I admit I'm making the ridiculous assumption that there was NO rBr effect. I realize that you believe it is highly presumptuous on my part to believe that Kerry reluctants canceled out the Bush reluctants.

Well, Febble, they would do more than just cancel; the Kerry reluctants were probably former moderate-conservative Republicans who did not want to draw attention to themselves.

Those Bushian naysayers who love your work can be quite vocal, you know. Just look at Sawyer.