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PROBABILITY ANALYSIS PROVES: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE! [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 11:46 AM
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PROBABILITY ANALYSIS PROVES: THE RBR HYPOTHESIS IS VIRTUALLY IMPOSSIBLE!
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Edited on Sat May-14-05 12:34 PM by TruthIsAll
This is a sensitivity analysis to determine the percentage of
refusers Bush needed to get his recorded 2-party vote of
51.24%.

The analysis indicates that the probability of Bush obtaining
the percentage of refusers required to achieve his 2-party
vote is VIRTUALY ZERO.

Given the following:

1) Responders to the National Exit Poll accounted for 52-54%
and Refusers 46-48%.
2) Kerry received 51.5% (2-party)of the responders.
3) Bush received 51.24% of the 2-party vote

Determine: 
The required percentage of Bush refusers required to achieve
51.24% of the total 2-party vote.

A probability  analysis is listed below for the various
scenarios.

**************************************************************

This is the calculation assuming a 53% response rate. 
Kerry won 51.5% of the Responders. 
For Bush to get to 51.24%, he needed 54.33% of the Refusers, a
5.83% increase. The MoE was 1%.

Poll	Pct	Kerry	Bush
Resp	53.00%	51.50%	48.50%
rBr	47.00%	45.67%	54.33%
	Total	48.76%	51.24%
			
**********************************************************			

Percentage of Refusers Required for Bush to get 51.24% of the
2-party vote

K2P: Kerry's 2-party percentage of responders. 
The actual K2P% was 51.5% as indicated below. 

Other K2P% are for sensitivity analysis only.		

Percent of Refusers Required to Have Voted for Bush
 for Various Voter Response Rates 
 and Kerry 2-party percentages

		Responders	
K2P%	52%	53%	54%

50.0	52.58	52.63	52.70
50.5	53.12	53.20	53.28
51.0	53.67	53.77	53.88
51.5	54.20	54.33	54.45 <<<< actual
52.0	54.75	54.90	55.05

Bush Pct Change from Responder to Refuser			
			
50.0	2.58	2.63	2.70
50.5	3.62	3.70	3.78
51.0	4.67	4.77	4.88
51.5	5.70	5.83	5.95 <<<
52.0	6.75	6.90	7.05
			
Probability Matrix
50.0	2.14E-07	1.27E-07	6.06E-08
50.5	6.50E-13	2.07E-13	6.43E-14
51.0	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	0.00E+00
51.5	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	0.00E+00 <<<
52.0	0.00E+00	0.00E+00	0.00E+00
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