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Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency? [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-14-05 06:01 AM
Original message
Can someone explain this RBR inconsistency?
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Edited on Sat May-14-05 06:05 AM by TruthIsAll
According to Febble:

"If the exit poll discrepancy was due to response bias,
the direction of bias was relative undersampling of Bush
voters. About 46% of all voters approached, both Kerry and
Bush voters, refused to be interviewed. 

Of these, E-M calculate that to account for the discrepancy
between the exit poll and the vote count, about 47% of the
refusers would have been Kerry voters and about 53% would have
been Bush refusers. Not a great difference, but enough to
swing the poll. You may not accept this hypothesis, but this
is what the "rBr" hypothesis is. That there was a
slight bias (47%:53%) in the ratio of Kerry non-responders to
Bush non-responders"

National Exit Poll
Kerry wins 50.8% of the total vote
Kerry wins 51.47% of the 2-party vote

	Kerry 	Bush
2Pty	 51.47%	  48.53%
Exit	 50.8	    47.9			

Recorded Vote Count
Kerry wins 48.28% of the total vote
Kerry wins 48.76% of the 2-party vote

2Pty 	 48.76%  51.24%
Actual  48.28	  50.73

Bush needed 54.42% of refusers to match his 2-party vote.
But the Bush margin was just 53%-47% .

		       Kerry 	Bush
Responder	54.05%	51.47%	48.53%
Refuser      45.95%	45.58%	54.42%

Total	             48.76%	51.24%

Did Bush get 53% of Refusers?
Then the refusal rate had to be 60.63% to match his vote.
But the refusal rate was 46%.
		        Kerry 	Bush
Responder	39.47%	51.47%	48.53%
Refuser      60.53%	47.00%	53.00%

Total	              48.76%	51.24%

So which is correct?

Are we to assume that 54.42% of the 45.95% refusers were Bush
voters, while just 48.53% of those who responded were?

Or are we to assume that 60.53% refused and 53% were Bush
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