MORE NUMERICAL EVIDENCE KERRY WON: 2004 TURNOUT SCENARIOS

[TruthIsAll]

Kerry Margin of Victory Turnout Matrix

Bush only wins with 80% Gore Turnout		

Gore	Bush Turnout %	
Turnout	  100	99	98

100	  5.91	6.39	6.86
99	  5.58	6.06	6.53
98	  5.25	5.73	6.2
95	  4.26	4.74	5.21
90	  2.61	3.09	3.57
85	  1.92	1.44	1.92
80	 -0.69	-0.21	0.27

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99%/99% Turnout Scenario Detail

National Exit Poll
13047 respondents @ 12:22am					

Kerry margin:6.06	million votes			

Gore turnout:99.0%
Bush turnout:99.0%

How Voted in 2000
-----------------
No: did not vote IN 2000
Consisting of 
New: first-time voters
Old: voted before 2000

Total	        Mix	Kerry	Bush	Nader
22.129	No	18.10%	57.00%	41.00%	2.00%
consisting of:
14.071	New	11.51%	56.00%	43.00%	1.00%
8.059	Old	6.59%	58.75%	37.51%	3.75%
					
48.722	Gore	39.85%	91.00%	8.00%	1.00%
48.203	Bush	39.43%	9.00%	91.00%	0.00%
3.206	Nader	2.62%	71.00%	21.00%	8.00%
					
122.26	Total	100.0%	51.99%	47.04%	0.97%
		122.26	63.56	57.51	1.19