You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #45: The more the better, but I think 10 would do it. [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-05 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #44
45.  The more the better, but I think 10 would do it.
Edited on Tue May-17-05 12:41 AM by TruthIsAll
A recount should result in a 50/50 even split, right?
Five for Bush and five for Kerry.

Let's say you do 10 recounts and Kerry improves his score in all of them. The probability of that is (1/2)^10 or 1 in 1024.
That would be a solid case for fraud.

Now let's assume an average precinct MoE of 4%.
At the 95% confidence level, the probability Kerry's vote would increase by 3% in a given precinct is 1 in 15:

P (>3%) = .067 = 1/15 = NORMDIST(0.485,0.515,0.02,TRUE)

The probability that Kerry would gain 3% in at least N=6 of 10 precincts is 1 in 16,661:

P = 1- Binomdist (N-1, 10, .067 ,TRUE)

Here are the probabilities of Kerry gaining 3% in N or more of the 10 precincts:

N Prob 1 in

1 5.00E-01 2
2 1.41E-01 7
3 2.53E-02 40
4 3.05E-03 328
5 2.56E-04 3,913

6 1.50E-05 66,661

7 6.07E-07 1,647,884
8 1.62E-08 61,872,978
9 2.56E-10 3,911,457,732
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC