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Reply #45: The more the better, but I think 10 would do it. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-17-05 12:30 AM
Response to Reply #44
45.  The more the better, but I think 10 would do it.
Edited on Tue May-17-05 12:41 AM by TruthIsAll
A recount should result in a 50/50 even split, right?
Five for Bush and five for Kerry.

Let's say you do 10 recounts and Kerry improves his score in all of them. The probability of that is (1/2)^10 or 1 in 1024.
That would be a solid case for fraud.

Now let's assume an average precinct MoE of 4%.
At the 95% confidence level, the probability Kerry's vote would increase by 3% in a given precinct is 1 in 15:

P (>3%) = .067 = 1/15 = NORMDIST(0.485,0.515,0.02,TRUE)

The probability that Kerry would gain 3% in at least N=6 of 10 precincts is 1 in 16,661:

P = 1- Binomdist (N-1, 10, .067 ,TRUE)

Here are the probabilities of Kerry gaining 3% in N or more of the 10 precincts:

N Prob 1 in

1 5.00E-01 2
2 1.41E-01 7
3 2.53E-02 40
4 3.05E-03 328
5 2.56E-04 3,913

6 1.50E-05 66,661

7 6.07E-07 1,647,884
8 1.62E-08 61,872,978
9 2.56E-10 3,911,457,732
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