Reply #10: EXPLANATION OF THE WEIGHTINGS AND RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS

[TruthIsAll]

EXPLANATION OF THE WEIGHTINGS AND INTERPRETATION OF THE RESULTS OF THE ANALYSIS

As I have posted numerous times on DU, the absolute maximum possible weightings in the How Voted 2000 category are as follows:

Bush: 39.82%, Gore 40.25%, Other (Nader): 2.62%.

FORGET ABOUT THE POLLING WEIGHTS. THESE ARE THE ABSOLUTE MAXIMUM POSSIBLE WEIGHTS BASED ON THE TOTAL NUMBER OF 2000 VOTERS WHO WERE STILL ALIVE AND COULD COME TO VOTE IN 2004.

FOR THIS ANALYSIS, WE SHALL ASSUME THAT ALL OF THEM (GORE, BUSH AND NADER VOTERS) CAME TO VOTE. WE KNOW THAT SOME DID NOT VOTE IN 2004, THEREFORE THE ACTUAL WEIGHTS ARE SLIGHTLY LOWER FOR GORE, BUSH AND NADER.

TO THE EXTENT THAT GORE, BUSH AND NADER VOTERS STAYED HOME, THE CORRESPONDING PERCENTAGE WEIGHTINGS MUST DECLINE AND THE PERCENTAGE OF NEW VOTERS (WHO WENT STRONGLY FOR KERRY) MUST RISE.

I WELCOME ANYONE WHO CARES TO DISPUTE THESE FACTS TO STEP FORWARD AND DO SO.

Since the Final 13660 respondent timeline (which Bush won) is rejected due to the IMPOSSIBLE 43% Bush /37% Gore weighting, we will use the 13047 timeline as our base. We will assume the 13047 timeline voting percentages as a base case, along with the maximum weightings given above (100% turnout for Gore and Bush voters).

We will calculate vote totals using one percent increments applied to the base case vote percentages for each subgroup: New voters, Gore, Bush and Nader/Other.

In the base case (rBr factor =0%), Kerry wins 51.94% of the vote, a 5.91mm margin.

If we assume a 7% decrease in the Kerry vote in each subgroup and apply the difference to the Bush vote for each group, we find that Bush wins the election with 50.74%, a 2.98 million vote margin (very close to the actual recorded vote). But for Bush to win by a 3 million vote margin 14.37% of Gore voters must have voted for him, as well as 44.99% of New voters, 91.63% of Bush 2000 voters and 25.97% of Nader voters. These percentages are totally implausible and far beyond the 1.75% margin of error.