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Reply #8: Peace Patriot represents the best of DU - and if there was an rBr [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat May-07-05 12:37 AM
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8. Peace Patriot represents the best of DU - and if there was an rBr
Edited on Sat May-07-05 01:30 AM by TruthIsAll
Peace Patriot explains convincingly why he or she was most
likely a Kerry voter (rRrK). That makes a lot of sense,
intuitively and mathematically. We should adjust the exit poll
to account for that famous 56-50% differential response.

If one analyzes the 13047 Exit Poll (the Final 13660 has been
proven IMPOSSIBLE), one quickly sees that it does not reflect
powerful anecdotal evidence that significantly more
Republicans voted for Kerry than Democrats voted for Bush.
Peace Patriot has just told us why.

ALL LOGIC TELLS US KERRY WON BY OVER 6 MILLION VOTES!

This is the Exit Poll of 13047 respondents (w/o rRrK)				
PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%	
Republican 	35%	92%	7%	1%	100.0%	
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%	
	        100%	47.77%	50.69%	1.54%	100.0%
            122.26	58.40	61.97	1.88

The odds that Bush would go from 47.77% to 50.73%: 
            1 in	303 million!

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4777,0.01/1.96,TRUE)					

Adjusting the calculation to assume that 3% rRrK (and 10% of
all Republicans) voted for Kerry:						

PARTY ID	Mix	Bush	Kerry	Nader		
Democrat 	38%	9%	90%	1%	100.0%	
Republican 	35%	89%	10%	1%	100.0%	
Independent	27%	45%	52%	3%	100.0%	
	        100%	46.72%	51.74%	1.54%	100.0%	
            122.26	57.12	63.26	1.88	

The odds: 1 in 500 trillion!			

Probability = 1-NORMDIST(0.5073,0.4672,0.01/1.96,TRUE)								
	
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