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Reply #9: Good point. The polls which I was referring to were the FINAL exit polls [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu May-05-05 01:31 PM
Response to Reply #8
9. Good point. The polls which I was referring to were the FINAL exit polls
Edited on Thu May-05-05 01:50 PM by TruthIsAll
At the time, I was unaware of the fact that the final, true exit polls were re-weighted to match the vote count.

The graph depicts deviations from the final preliminary exit poll. For example, in 2004, the preliminary exit poll of the first 13047 respondents had Kerry winning by 51-48%.

The final 660 respondents brought the total to 13660, which was re-weighted - and voila, Bush is the winner by 51-48%.

The only problem with that is I have shown that the 13047 National Exit Poll matched the state polls within .06% - AFTER RE-WEIGHTING THE INDIVIDUAL STATE POLLS TO MATCH THE TOTAL STATE VOTE.

SO WHY WAS THERE ANOTHER RE-WEIGHTING?
TO MATCH THE BUSH VOTE, NOT THE TOTAL VOTE.

EXAMPLE:
THE 41% WEIGHTING OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS IN THE 13047 EXIT POLL (WHICH KERRY WON) WAS CHANGED TO AN IMPOSSIBLE 43% IN THE FINAL 13660 EXIT POLL (WHICH KERRY LOST).

I say impossible, because 43% of 122.26 million is 52.57mm, which is 2.11 mm more than the 50.456 million votes that Bush got in 2000. Where did these 2.11 mm voters come from? And what about the 1.75 mm Bush 2000 voters who died? Did they come back to life to vote?

What does it all mean? The original, preliminary exit polls reflect true voter intent. The final poll is massaged to match the recorded vote - and assumes that the recorded vote is correct, that there was ZERO ballot spoilage and ZERO miscounted votes.

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