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Reply #14: My personal apology [View All]

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed May-04-05 01:35 PM
Response to Reply #8
14. My personal apology
I cannot speak for others on DU, and since I was never welcomed in the first place, I am probably not a member of community, although I am the contrarian statistician (I'm trained as a biologist and geographer) It would be my wish that this were a discussion, not a debate, nor a xenophobic diatribe against the Scots, as you may be our best direct window on USCV.

Please correct me if I have it wrong, my understanding has been that with NEP's claim that bias affected the characterization of the exit poll to show greater support of Kerry than may have been present, there exists potential to rehabilitate the exit polls and remove that bias. The manner in which I saw this issue being addressed was, since WPE represented a 'goodness of fit' test, would be to remove those precincts with high bias rates through an ANOVA, and recalculate the mean and MOE with the residual. What I see your position as being that even precincts with low WPE may be suspect to bias, and that a further correction or adjustment may be necessary before proceeding.

Another concern that I have is with the pattern of bias itself (being a geographer). I noted that there is apparent effort on the part of the Ohio SOS to limit the effectiveness of the exit polling in Ohio (NEP, 1/19/05, p.70?), would this potentially allow for less bias within precincts in other states?

Thank you for your time and attention.

Mike
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