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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-05 04:51 PM
Response to Reply #33
39. OK
forget the standard, forget tails, forget even the extra variance you need to add for cluster sampling, let's just ask the question. On your z scores, you'd expect 2 or 3 states to be more than 1.96 standard deviations from the mean.

Actually you got 16. What's more they were all on the positive side of the mean.

Josh Mitteldorf did a similar analysis in the USCV paper. Actually he and I worked on that bit together.

I agree. It is completely clear that even if any one state was within the MoE (which they all are if you use a two tailed test, which you should do, as the Kerry skew is post hoc, not a priori, and use an appropriate design factor) that Kerry's vote was overstated.

I have never queried this. It is blindingly obvious. The polls did not match the count, and the differed from the count by a margin that is well outside the margin of error.

If you simply look at the WPEs in the E-M report it is even more absurdly huge. I think I worked out that the probability of that amount of error being due to sampling error is something like 1 in 9 billion.

But the size of the discrepancy is not in itself evidence that the problem was in the count. It was not sampling error. We know that. It might have been fraud. It might have been differential non-response. But no amount of significance in the significant difference between two quantities will tell you which was wrong.

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