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Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-03-05 07:44 PM
Response to Reply #49
69. In this way
David:

Is your estimate of new voters independent of NEP's exit poll? If not, then you have to bracket it by an MOE of 6.5% minimum. Move this downward by the MOE (since this is counter the direction of the bias), and assume static B/G voter support (the active voters from 2000), and the infill between will be casual voters.

The thing that may affect this further, is that a casual voter may intend to have voted in 2000 but did not, but believes that they had. This is how I would characterize the bandwagon effect, though I have issues with this explanation based upon the studies cited that I have reviewed so far.

Mike
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