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Reply #64: I think people are reading more into my study [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Tue May-03-05 05:07 PM
Response to Reply #60
64. I think people are reading more into my study
than it deserves!

I analysed the data that was given in the Edison-Mitofsky report on the exit polls. They narrowed down the problem to what they call "within precinct error" or WPE for short. The WPE is the discrepancy between the predicted vote count in each precinct (estimated from the responses they get) and the counted vote in that precinct. Obviously if the vote count is wrong, the answer will be wrong. But if their estimate is wrong, the answer will also be wrong. But you can't tell from the WPE which is which.

However, there is another problem with the WPE which is that it exaggerates the discrepancy in precincts in which the support for each candidate is even, and makes it too small in precincts which are highly partisan. This is just an illusion of the numbers however, and it makes any analysis based on the WPE suspect.

This includes Edison-Mitofsky's own results as well as the conclusions (in my opinion) of the USCV report.

My paper suggests that Edison-Mitofsky reanalyse their data using my fix. Then we can see if they still reach the same conclusions. It would be good if they also tested some fraud hypotheses directly. I hope they will.

This doesn't answer your question, but I hope it makes it clearer what my paper was about! A few people seem to have mistaken it for something it was not.

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