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Reply #36: Noise often has a pattern [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-05 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. Noise often has a pattern
and if you can model the pattern you can filter out the noise.

Fraud may have a pattern that looks like differential non-response (vote switching, ballot stuffing, or ballots spoilage would all have the same signature on the data as differential non-response (rBr if you like).

Margin snipping (perhaps via hacking) might leave a tell tale signature on the WPEs (and more so on my bias index) if the hacker increment to the margin was additive rather than multiplicative. So that's a finger-print we might look for.

Other things to look for, IMO would be greater levels of bias (using my index, not the WPE) in specific places, e.g. swing states; precincts with touch screen machines (although you have to be careful that this is not confounded by other demographic variables like county population); Ohio.

On the other hand, greater levels of bias in precincts where sampling protocol was difficult to adhere to for various reasons would support differential non-response (aka rBr)as a factor contributing to the over-estimate of the Kerry vote.
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