You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #36: Noise often has a pattern [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon May-02-05 03:46 PM
Response to Reply #33
36. Noise often has a pattern
and if you can model the pattern you can filter out the noise.

Fraud may have a pattern that looks like differential non-response (vote switching, ballot stuffing, or ballots spoilage would all have the same signature on the data as differential non-response (rBr if you like).

Margin snipping (perhaps via hacking) might leave a tell tale signature on the WPEs (and more so on my bias index) if the hacker increment to the margin was additive rather than multiplicative. So that's a finger-print we might look for.

Other things to look for, IMO would be greater levels of bias (using my index, not the WPE) in specific places, e.g. swing states; precincts with touch screen machines (although you have to be careful that this is not confounded by other demographic variables like county population); Ohio.

On the other hand, greater levels of bias in precincts where sampling protocol was difficult to adhere to for various reasons would support differential non-response (aka rBr)as a factor contributing to the over-estimate of the Kerry vote.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC