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Reply #6: I am not sure exactly what you mean [View All]

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Febble Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 05:54 PM
Response to Reply #5
6. I am not sure exactly what you mean
by the "virtually impossible skew to Bush" in the battleground states, and in any case was not what I was addressing in my paper.

It is true that Ohio, Pennsylvania and Florida had larger errors than some other states, but the one of the largest errors was in New Hampshire, not a battleground state, and they also had a recount that satisfied Nader.

I would like to know whether the within-precinct error was larger in battle ground states or not. My own analyses of the WPE suggests it was not, although as I have said elsewhere, I think these analyses need to be done with a different (my) variable. Of the three big battleground states Pennsylvania was the most out of line, but not statistically significantly so. Other, less sensitive states were further from the mean.

I think you misunderstand the "reluctant Republican responder" hypothesis. The E-M analysis was based solely on votes, regardless of party affiliation. It is normally called the "reluctant Bush responder" hypothesis, as the hypothesis is that voters who voted for Bush were more likely to refuse to respond than voters who voted for Kerry. Both were reluctant - but the figures estimated by E-M are that while 46% of Kerry voters managed to avoid the pollsters (by luck or design) 50% of Bush voters did. Not a huge difference, but enough to seriously upset the predictions.

But my paper does not argue for the reluctant Bush responder hypothesis. It only argues against the "Bush strongholds have more vote-corruption" hypothesis. If you want to read my paper as evidence for much more wide-spread vote-corruption (which there has to have been if the exit polls really reflect vote-corruption), feel free. I think there is other evidence against that view, but that is not what my paper is arguing.
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