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Kathy Dopp's Most Recent Post Concerning Lizzie Liddel's Criticism of USCV [View All]

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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun May-01-05 03:29 PM
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Kathy Dopp's Most Recent Post Concerning Lizzie Liddel's Criticism of USCV
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Because it Deserves it's own Post:



sunshinekathy (12 posts) Sun May-01-05 12:47 PM
Response to Original message

24. US Count Votes' Rebuttal & Plea for Support of Election Data Archive


Bruce O'Dell, VP of US Count Votes, has created a simulation model of Lizzie's algorithm. It indicates that her model requires a "participation by partisanship" profile that is -totally- inconsistent with E/M's empirical data.

Lizzie's model requires -greater- exit poll participation in High-Kerry precincts than in High-Bush precincts. E/M's data shows quite the contrary.

If you reproduce Lizzie's results, and delve down into the data, you face a fundamental contradiction with E/M's "participation rate by precinct" empirical data.

Lizzie (and E/M's) "uniform response bias" hypothesis simply does not fit the facts. Period. There is simply no way to reconcile a "uniform response bias" hypothesis with E/M's "participation rates by partisanship" data.

US Count Votes will eventually publish the raw data and my simulator source code, to allow anyone to confirm my assertions.

For Bruce O'Dell's professional qualifications to simulate mathematical models, please refer to www.digitalagility.com/Odell_home_page.htm
35 years after writing his first Basic program, Bruce has reached the peak of his profession.

He is currently engaged as the lead architect at an enterprise security project at one of the Fortune 20 ("20" is not a typo). He is in charge of the technical aspects of security at one of the twenty top public corporations in America, and for the last 15 years, I have focused a major portion of my consulting practice on formal modeling of complex systems.

US Count Votes needs funding NOW to hire full-time programmers, system administrators, liason with the 33,000 election offices in America, statiticians, etc. if it is to complete its project to audit elections to have a system in place by Nov 06 to ensure that the right people are sworn into office in Jan 07. This cannot wait. The technical systems US Count Votes is building for its National Election Data Archive project are huge and cannot be built in six months prior to the Nov 06 election.

Every other issue that the Democrats care about will be resolved as soon as we audit elections to ensure that the right candidates are sworn into office in Jan 07. US Count Votes' needs 1/2 million dollars minimum for the staff to accomplish its database systems (which require about 1000 database tables - 15 per state and some shared tables). Please help out by donating or helping us to raise funds:

http://electionarchive.org/fairelection/donate.html

This project is the Democrats' best hope for restoring Democratic control of Congress in Jan. 07.

Best,

Kathy Dopp
http://electionarchive.org


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