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A PUZZLE FOR DUERS: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-30-05 12:20 PM
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A PUZZLE FOR DUERS: THE NATIONAL VS. STATE GENDER DEMOGRAPHIC MATCH-UP
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Edited on Sat Apr-30-05 12:22 PM by TruthIsAll
Is this just coincidence? What do you think?

Let's compare the National Exit Poll Gender demographic to the
state polls.

There were four stages to the National Exit Poll. 
The timeline is shown below. 

There were 51 state exit polls, totaling 73,000 respondents,
also below. The state exit polls were posted at 12:22am.

I wanted to see if the  Gender demographic for the weighted
state exit polls matched the National. The reason is that the
Gender demographic is the best overall measure of who won.
There are just two characteristics (male and female) and they
are asked the basic question: Who did you vote for? Very
simple.

Here's what I noticed: The horizontal sums for Kerry, Bush,
Nader/Other did not add to 100%, in all the states. I ran the
numbers and calculated a weighted vote total for Kerry, based
on the exit poll percentages multiplied by the weighted state
vote (state vote/total vote). Summing the weights gives
Kerry's true National Percentage.

As you might expect, since the individual state totals do not
all add to 100%, Kerry's weighted total is understated
(50.01%).
Compare this 50.01% to the 12:22am National exit poll
(50.80%).

So here's what I did. I allocated the differences to Kerry, so
that the horizontal totals =100% for Kerry+Bush+Nader. The
state-weighted Kerry Percentage is now 50.82%, within .04% of
the National 50.78%.

Now, here is the question:

Is the fact that the state percentages did not at first add to
100%, but after the differences were allocated to Kerry, the
state polls exactly matched the National Exit Poll, just a
coincidence? 

What do you think?

ANALYSIS OF THE GENDER VOTE		
National vs. State Exit Polls		

NATIONAL EXIT POLL		
Time	Size	KerryPct
4pm	8349	50.48
7:33pm	11027	50.78
12:22am	13047	50.78
1:25pm	13660	47.78
		

STATE EXIT POLLS		
12:22am 	72714	

Total Pcts did not all add to 100% for Kerry+Bush+Nader		
Wtd Avg	50.01	
Unwtd Avg	48.28	

Adding the difference to Kerry's totals to = 100%		
Wtd Avg	50.82	
Unwtd Avg	48.97	

The weighted average now agrees with the Nat Exit Poll		
	
									

			Posted Totals<100%	    Posted Totals =100%		
State	Vote	Size	MoE	Kerry	VoteWtd		Kerry	Diff	VoteWtd
									
AL	1.883	730	3.63%	40.5%	0.62%		41.4%	0.92%	0.64%
AK	0.312	910	3.25%	38.8%	0.10%		39.2%	0.48%	0.10%
AZ	2.013	1859	2.27%	46.7%	0.77%		47.2%	0.47%	0.78%
AR	1.056	1402	2.62%	46.1%	0.40%		46.7%	0.57%	0.40%
CA	12.392	919	3.23%	54.6%	5.54%		56.6%	1.96%	5.74%

CO	2.128	2515	1.95%	48.1%	0.84%		49.6%	1.47%	0.86%
CT	1.579	872	3.32%	57.7%	0.74%		57.6%	-0.06%	0.74%
DC	0.227	795	3.48%	89.8%	0.17%		89.7%	-0.12%	0.28%
DE	0.375	770	3.53%	57.3%	0.18%		58.3%	1.00%	0.11%
FL	7.604	2846	1.84%	49.7%	3.09%		49.7%	0.00%	3.09%

GA	3.299	1536	2.50%	42.9%	1.16%		43.4%	0.44%	1.17%
HA	0.429	499	4.39%	53.3%	0.19%		53.3%	0.00%	0.19%
ID	0.598	539	4.22%	32.9%	0.16%		34.3%	1.45%	0.17%
IL	5.275	1392	2.63%	56.6%	2.44%		57.6%	1.00%	2.49%
IN	2.468	926	4.39%	40.6%	0.82%		41.6%	1.00%	0.84%

IA	1.505	2502	4.22%	49.7%	0.61%		50.2%	0.46%	0.62%
KS	1.188	654	3.83%	34.1%	0.33%		34.6%	0.45%	0.34%
KY	1.796	1034	3.05%	40.2%	0.59%		41.2%	1.00%	0.61%
LA	1.939	1669	2.40%	43.9%	0.70%		44.9%	1.00%	0.71%
ME	0.741	1968	2.21%	53.8%	0.33%		54.2%	0.47%	0.33%

MD	2.384	1000	3.10%	56.2%	1.10%		57.2%	1.00%	1.12%
MA	2.905	869	3.32%	65.2%	1.55%		67.1%	1.96%	1.60%
MI	4.838	2452	1.98%	51.5%	2.04%		52.5%	1.00%	2.08%
MN	2.823	2178	2.10%	53.5%	1.24%		54.5%	1.00%	1.26%
MS	1.138	798	3.47%	43.0%	0.40%		43.0%	0.00%	0.40%

MO	2.731	2158	2.11%	47.0%	1.05%		48.0%	1.00%	1.07%
MT	0.450	640	3.87%	37.5%	0.14%		39.0%	1.51%	0.14%
NE	0.777	785	3.50%	36.0%	0.23%		36.0%	0.00%	0.23%
NV	0.826	2116	2.13%	49.2%	0.33%		50.2%	1.00%	0.34%
NH	0.676	1849	2.28%	54.9%	0.30%		55.0%	0.02%	0.30%

NJ	3.610	1520	2.56%	53.4%	1.58%		53.4%	0.00%	1.58%
NM	0.756	1951	2.22%	50.1%	0.31%		51.1%	1.00%	0.32%
NY	7.389	1476	2.55%	65.1%	3.94%		65.1%	0.00%	3.94%
NC	3.501	2099	2.14%	48.2%	1.38%		48.2%	0.00%	1.38%
ND	0.313	649	3.85%	32.6%	0.08%		33.6%	1.00%	0.09%

OH	5.625	1963	2.21%	52.1%	2.40%		52.1%	0.00%	2.40%
OK	1.464	1539	2.50%	34.6%	0.41%		35.0%	0.48%	0.42%
OR	1.828	1054	3.02%	50.3%	0.75%		52.2%	1.90%	0.78%
PA	5.766	1930	2.23%	54.1%	2.55%		54.7%	0.53%	2.58%
RI	0.436	809	3.45%	62.7%	0.22%		63.1%	0.47%	0.23%

SC	1.616	1935	2.23%	45.1%	0.60%		45.6%	0.43%	0.60%
SD	0.388	1495	2.53%	36.5%	0.12%		37.0%	0.51%	0.12%
TN	2.437	1774	2.33%	40.6%	0.81%		41.0%	0.48%	0.82%
TX	7.410	1671	2.40%	36.3%	2.20%		37.8%	1.46%	2.29%
UT	0.927	798	3.47%	29.1%	0.22%		30.0%	0.92%	0.23%

VT	0.311	685	3.74%	63.7%	0.16%		64.2%	0.55%	0.16%
VA	3.193	1432	2.59%	50.2%	1.31%		50.2%	0.00%	1.31%
WA	2.857	2123	2.13%	54.1%	1.27%		55.0%	0.86%	1.29%
WV	0.756	1722	2.36%	44.5%	0.28%		45.0%	0.47%	0.28%
WI	2.993	2223	2.08%	49.2%	1.21%		49.7%	0.47%	1.22%

WY	0.243	684	3.75%	30.9%	0.06%		32.5%	1.51%	0.06%

State	Vote	Size	AvgMoE	KAvg<100KWtd<100	KAvg	Diff	KWtd
Sum/Avg	122.171	72714	2.86%	48.47%	49.29%		49.17%	1.53%	50.82%
									
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