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Reply #5: You seem to forget [View All]

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mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. You seem to forget
That you don't know how they got the weights in the first place.

In multiple regression equations, the values used in weighing correspond to the correlation with each eigenvector. In following Bookchin's suggestion that allometry usually is the significant factor on the first eigenvector (precincts with larger numbers), the next likely variable is going to be party identification and it will be on the second eigenvector. That is going to be the strongest weight, and would likely explain 70 to 90% of the variability observed. In other words, it is almost sufficient to explain the phenomena observed. Other significant variables are likely gender and ethnicity, that will likely get your total explanatory power to 95%-97% with re-weighting. Income may finish it off. Each time you increase your explanation closer to 100%.

If party identification is the category with the strongest explanatory power, then what makes the Gore/Bush 2000 voter selection independent of that variable, since that voter selection would be almost entirely dependent on party identification? In other words, the variable has almost no explanatory value in the patterns observed, but would be altered by the re-weighting for party identification, and would have no reason to be corrected or readjusted for. In other words, it is what we used to call a 'howler'--an unintended impossibility that is only an artifact of re-weighting.

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