You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #5: You seem to forget [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
mgr Donating Member (616 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 05:43 PM
Response to Reply #2
5. You seem to forget
That you don't know how they got the weights in the first place.

In multiple regression equations, the values used in weighing correspond to the correlation with each eigenvector. In following Bookchin's suggestion that allometry usually is the significant factor on the first eigenvector (precincts with larger numbers), the next likely variable is going to be party identification and it will be on the second eigenvector. That is going to be the strongest weight, and would likely explain 70 to 90% of the variability observed. In other words, it is almost sufficient to explain the phenomena observed. Other significant variables are likely gender and ethnicity, that will likely get your total explanatory power to 95%-97% with re-weighting. Income may finish it off. Each time you increase your explanation closer to 100%.

If party identification is the category with the strongest explanatory power, then what makes the Gore/Bush 2000 voter selection independent of that variable, since that voter selection would be almost entirely dependent on party identification? In other words, the variable has almost no explanatory value in the patterns observed, but would be altered by the re-weighting for party identification, and would have no reason to be corrected or readjusted for. In other words, it is what we used to call a 'howler'--an unintended impossibility that is only an artifact of re-weighting.

Mike
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC