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Reply #3: Here is my email to Rick 0f Stones Cry Out [View All]

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davidgmills Donating Member (651 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Wed Apr-27-05 04:39 PM
Response to Reply #1
3. Here is my email to Rick 0f Stones Cry Out
Edited on Wed Apr-27-05 04:40 PM by davidgmills
Well, with as little as I know about the subject, I was always a bit concerned that USCV's points about the Bush Non-Responders were pushing it a bit. Their proof didn't seem to be glaring evidence that there was no such thing as the Bush non-responder phenomenon.

However, I still don't find the Bush Non-Responder excuse credible in my mind, but I would never say it couldn't exist.

The reason I don't find it credible is that I have many conservative friends, far more so than liberal ones, (because around here I am in the real minority), and none of my conservative friends would be the slightest bit sheepish about being approached by a pollster, regardless of pollster age, race or dress.

On the other hand, I represent many of the poor and illiterate because of what I do for a living, and I can easily see these people being intimidated by someone of a higher status or educational level and see these people not wanting to respond. Many of these people also aren't able to go to the polls at their leisure and many would not have the extra time to fill out questionnaires. I sure don't see these people as being zealous responders.

Add to that the fact that the conservative districts have much better voting places, and more voting machines with shorter lines and shorter waits, I really have trouble buying it.

So the whole concept just goes against my personal experience and what I observe in the people I know and deal with all the time. It just strikes me as intuitively wrong.

I realize that intuition can sometimes fool you but it is my intuition that really makes me demand proof that this bias exists in reality and not that it is just a theoretical exercise.

If the exit polls are wrong, then what I am more inclined to believe is that the experts just overpolled Democratic districts and underpolled Republican ones. But no expert seems to be suggesting this is the case.

This is what my dad tends to believe by the way. That no polling expert, no matter how good he is, no matter how much data he has beforehand, can accurately pick representative precincts because Americans are too mobile and the Republicans are usually leaving Democratic areas and not the other way around. So what seemed like a representative precinct last election may not be representative at all of this one.

Take care Rick.
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