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THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS (WITHIN .06%) ! [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 10:15 PM
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THE 13047 NATIONAL EXIT POLL CONFIRMS THE STATE EXIT POLLS (WITHIN .06%) !
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Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 10:44 PM by TruthIsAll
This analysis will show that State exit poll data (73607
respondents) posted at 12:22am, confirms the results of the
National Exit Poll (13047 respondents), also posted at
12:22am.These results were derived independently. 

Kerry won the National Exit poll with 50.84% of the vote. He
won the state exit polls, re-weighted by the number of state
voters, with 50.90%. 

Calculating the percentage based on the 13047 National Exit
Poll regional weightings was straightforward. The weighted
Kerry percentage based on the state exit polls was more
involved. The actual share of exit poll respondents for each
state needed to be determined, by re-weighting the exit poll
to the total regional vote.

For example, calculate Kerry's CT exit poll share:
1)There were N= 872 CT exit poll respondents out of 16261
total respondents in the Eastern region, or 5.363%.

2)There were 1.551 million CT votes out of the 26.854 million
who voted in the East, or 5.776%.

3) The weighting factor WF = 5.776/5.363 = 1.077

4) Kerry won KP = 58.47%, or 510 of the 872 Exit Poll
respondents.
 
5) Now calculate KW = Kerry's re-weighted exit poll: 

       KW = KP * N * WF
       KW = 58.474% * 872 * 1.077 = 549

Corresponding state exit poll results are calculated for all
the states and DC. The final sum (37466) is divided by the
total number of state exit poll respondents (73607)to derive
KWP, Kerry's state-weighted NATIONAL vote: 

       KWP = 50.90% = 37466/ 73607


.........................................................

STATE EXIT POLL
73607 RESPONDENTS
12:22am				

STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL SUMMARY
Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit

EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895
WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137
				
TOTAL	50.90%	73607	164.5%	37466
				


NATIONAL EXIT POLL 
13047 RESPONDENTS				
12:22am

Region  Pct	Bush	Kerry	Nader

EAST	  22%	41%	58%	1%
MIDW	  26%	49%	50%	1%
SOUTH	  31%	54%	45%	1%
WEST	  21%	45%	53%	1%

TOTAL	100.0%	47.95%	50.84%	1.00%
VOTES(mm)	58046	61544	1211

............................................................

STATE EXIT POLL DATA
(re-weighted to total state vote)

Region	Kerry	Exit	Vote/	Kerry
State	Pct	Size	Exit	Exit

EAST	59.60%	16261	165.1%	9691

CT	58.47%	872	107.7%	549
DC	91.63%	795	28.3%	206
DE	58.44%	770	17.6%	79
MA	66.46%	889	195.8%	1157
MD	57.04%	1000	142.8%	815
ME	54.83%	1968	22.4%	241
NH	55.50%	1849	22.0%	226
NJ	56.13%	1520	142.7%	1217
NY	63.97%	1452	303.5%	2819
PA	54.41%	1930	179.8%	1888
RI	64.24%	809	32.1%	167
VT	65.69%	685	27.0%	121
WV	45.19%	1722	26.4%	205
				
				
MIDW	50.28%	19377	158.3%	9742

IA	50.67%	2502	37.7%	478
IL	57.13%	1392	237.7%	1891
IN	40.97%	926	167.0%	634
KS	34.60%	654	113.1%	256
MI	52.55%	2452	123.5%	1591
MN	54.61%	2178	81.0%	963
MO	47.48%	2158	79.5%	814
ND	33.58%	649	30.0%	65
NE	36.54%	785	61.7%	177
OH	52.06%	1963	180.2%	1841
SD	37.42%	1495	16.1%	90
WI	50.21%	2223	84.3%	941
				
SOUTH	43.75%	20332	192.0%	8895

AL	41.08%	730	133.4%	400
AR	46.93%	1402	74.2%	488
FL	49.93%	2846	138.1%	1963
GA	43.11%	1536	111.2%	737
KY	40.76%	1034	89.8%	378
LA	44.50%	1669	60.0%	445
MS	43.20%	798	73.8%	254
NC	47.31%	2167	83.8%	859
OK	34.73%	1539	49.5%	265
SC	45.79%	1735	48.0%	382
TN	41.15%	1774	71.1%	519
TX	36.84%	1671	229.4%	1412
VA	47.96%	1431	115.5%	792
				

WEST	51.81%	17637	138.9%	9137

AK	40.14%	910	23.9%	87
AZ	46.60%	1859	40.4%	350
CA	55.73%	1919	459.9%	4919
CO	49.07%	2515	60.2%	743
HI	53.32%	499	61.5%	164
ID	33.33%	559	76.0%	142
MT	39.28%	640	49.5%	124
NM	51.34%	1951	27.6%	277
NV	50.66%	2116	27.8%	298
OR	51.22%	1064	122.5%	668
UT	29.93%	798	81.7%	195
WA	55.07%	2123	95.5%	1116
WY	32.07%	684	25.1%	55
				
				
				
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