You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #17: As for the 660 added they don't exist! [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
passy Donating Member (780 posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri May-20-05 07:50 AM
Response to Reply #3
17. As for the 660 added they don't exist!
http://www.democraticunderground.com/discuss/duboard.ph...
In this post i showed how the numbers don't make sense.

"In the 13047 poll around 3804 women had voted for Kerry. (13047x54%x54%)
In the 13660 poll around 3761 women had voted for Kerry. (13660x54%x51%)
That means that 43 women who had voted for Kerry were removed from the final poll.
In the 13047 poll around 2820 men had voted for Kerry. (13047x46%x47%)
In the 13660 poll around 2764 men had voted for Kerry. (13660x46%x44%)
That means that 56 women who had voted for Kerry were removed from the final poll.
Altogether 99 persons voting for Kerry were removed from the final group used for the poll of 13660.
That also means that an extra 712 * voters were added to the final poll numbers.
It doesn't make sense if all of the people in the group of 13047 are also supposed to be in the group of 13660."

You could go deeper in the numbers and find that the re-weighting doesn't make any sense.
I think we can simply dismiss the 13660 exit poll as being irrelevant. It's a waste of time to try and analyze the re-weighting used in that poll.

This was some of the categories that were increased: Southern voters, 30-44 year old voters, conservatives ,returning * voters.

I haven't analyzed the numbers but the numbers should match somewhere. Like there must be a lot of conservative, southern, 30-44 year old men, returning * voter, that were included in the final poll and quite a few eastern, 18-30 year old women, returning Gore voters, that were taken out.
These are real people aren't they. So if you increase one category's weight for example conservatives, and these conservatives are men it would also increase the weight percentage for men.
Anyway this is getting way to confusing for me if someone else wants to explain it then go ahead, the only thing is that when I read all the numbers it's hard to remember that there is real people behind them.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC