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liam_laddie Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 02:43 PM
Response to Original message
2. exit poll totals
Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 02:55 PM by liam_laddie
TIA - thanks in excessive amounts for all your work...

Ques. - does the 73,307 total of exit-poll interviews reflect:
1) the "completed responses" only? Or were there more
attempted interviews? I think E/M expects about a 45-55%
not-completed rate.
2) the mystery 660 voters added overnight? How could these
be identified? Might it mean an analysis of the last raw data
total interviews by precinct, and see where, if identified in the
"final" poll results, these were "added" (so to speak)?

There is anecdotal evidence here, Hamilton County, Ohio, that
in precinct 4-M, the "bush reluctant responder hypothesis" had some legs; this according to three Dem observers who were outside, with or near the pollster, at various shifts during the day. There were many non-participants who were "Republican types" according to his comments to my observers. And Kerry seemed to have "about a 60-40 margin by mid day..." He apparently did not poll only 4-M voters, the target precinct, but likely and inadvertantly mixed in the other three precincts voting at same school. It was raining hard off-and-on that day, and the weather in other regions may have affected this phenomenon, too.

The sample was only 31 (21-10 Kerry) so it was about 2/3 desired total (40-50, I believe.) Bush carried 4-M, 312-211, with 101 of these shown as absentees (19%) a quite high rate, in my book. 4-M's absentees are 15.8% of registrations 101 / 640
Ham Cty as a whole had a 10.7% rate, of ballots cast, and 7.9% of registrations.
So 4-M had about double absentee rate.

How large a correction factor could be applied to change the last raw data results to account for any BRRH effect, and still give Kerry a win? I mention this only because the final raw data numbers seem to be a constant in your calcs, and may not, in fact, be a true constant. By what absolute number revision could
this factor be included and still have Kerry on top? I am most definitely not a statistician / analyst, but have been only collecting data here for others to crunch.

Please keep crunching yourself!
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