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STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sun Apr-24-05 01:10 PM
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STATE / NATIONAL EXIT POLL ANALYSIS BY REGION
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Edited on Sun Apr-24-05 02:10 PM by TruthIsAll
										
SUMMARY REGIONAL STATE EXIT POLL STATISTICS

Note:
Vote = actual vote in thousands
Size = State exit poll sample size
Z    = Bush Z-score (standard deviations from the mean) 
MoE    = margin of Error
StDev  = standard deviation from the mean
Poll(p)= Kerry's exit poll percentage
Vote   = Kerry's vote percentage
Dev    = Poll - Vote spread
Prob   = Probability of deviation based on Z-score 

Formulas:
Stdev  = sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)
MoE    = 1.96* StDev 
Z      = Dev/ StDev

Prob = 1 - NORMSDIST(Z)
Regional Z-scores are approximated by averaging the states.

Kerry deviated from 59.60% in the East (using state exit poll
data) to 56.09% in the vote, the largest regional deviation.

Region	Z	Vote	Size	MoE	StDev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob  	1 in
EAST	2.22	26854	16261	2.75%	1.40%	59.60	56.09	-3.51%	9.49E-13	1,053,596,824,745
MIDWEST	1.87	30676	19377	2.61%	1.33%	50.28	48.68	-1.60%	3.60E-03	278
SOUTH	1.81	39034	20332	2.56%	1.31%	43.75	42.33	-1.42%	1.41E-06	709,051
WEST	1.26	24491	17637	2.91%	1.49%	51.81	50.87	-0.94%	2.86E-07	3,500,172

TOTAL	1.79	121055	73607	2.71%	1.38%	50.55	48.72	-1.82% 

......................................................

These are the probabilities that Bush would exceed the given
Z-score and the number of states it was exceeded in each
region, based on the deviation from the exit poll to the vote:

EAST    Z> 2.23 in 8 of 13 states = 1 in 1,053,596,824,745
MIDWEST Z> 1.07 in 6 of 12 states = 1 in 278
SOUTH   Z> 1.21 in 9 of 13 states = 1 in 709,051
WEST    Z> 1.32 in 9 of 13 states = 1 in 3,500,172

The Probability is calculated using the Excel Binomial
Distribution function:
Prob   = 1- BINOMDIST (n-1, N, p(Z), True)
Where n= number of states in the region in which Z>X,
  and N= total number of states in the region.

p(Z) = probability of the deviation between the vote and exit
poll as measured by the Z-score in X standard deviations.
p(Z=X) = 1 - NORMSDIST(X)
True = Cumulative distribution parameter

................................................	
											
NATIONAL EXIT POLL - 13047 RESPONDENTS
BASED ON NEP REGIONAL WEIGHTING	
Kerry wins by 50.53-47.95%

Region  Pct Bush	Kerry	Nader
EAST	   22%	41%	58%	1%
MIDWEST   26%	49%	50%	1%
SOUTH	   31%	54%	44%	1%
WEST	   21%	45%	53%	1%

TOTAL  100% 47.95% 50.53% 1.0%
Votes         58046 61169 1211						

..................................................


CALCULATION OF REGIONAL WEIGHTS 
USING TOTAL VOTE & STATE EXIT POLL DATA

The South had a 27.62% weighting in the 13047 National Exit
Poll but was 32.24% of the vote, a very odd occurrence.

Region	  Vote	Pct	Exit	Pct	Bush  1 in
EAST	 26854	22.18%	16261	22.09%	1,053,596,824,745		
MIDWEST	 30676	25.34%	19377	26.32%	278			
SOUTH	 39034	32.24%	20332	27.62%	709,051
WEST	 24491	20.23%	17637	23.96%	3,500,172
	
TOTAL 121055  100.0%	73607	100.0%							
											
......................................................														

STATE EXIT POLL REGIONAL WEIGHTS 
APPLIED TO NATIONAL EXIT POLL 13047
Kerry wins by 50.83-47.66%

Region        Exit	Pct	Bush	Kerry	Nader
EAST	      16261	22.09%	6667	9431	163
MIDWEST	      19377	26.32%	9495	9689	194
SOUTH	      20332	27.62%	10979	8946	203
WEST	      17637	23.96%	7937	9348	176

TOTAL	    73607	100.0%	35078	37414	736
		             47.66%	50.83%	1.00%						
..................................................											

FINAL RECORDED VOTE REGIONAL WEIGHTS
APPLIED TO NATIONAL EXIT POLL 13047
Kerry wins by 50.45-48.03%
		
Region        Vote	Pct	Bush	Kerry	Nader
EAST	       26854	22.18%	11010	15575	269
MIDWEST	       30676	25.34%	15031	15338	307
SOUTH	       39034	32.24%	21078	17175	390
WEST	       24491	20.23%	11021	12980	245

TOTAL	      121055	100.0%	58141	61069	1211
      	                     48.03% 50.45% 1.00%						
...........................................................



STATE EXIT POLL AND VOTE STATISTICS BY REGION

Z      = Z-score
Votes  = votes in thousands
Size(n)= state exit poll sample size
MoE    = margin of Error
StDev  = standard deviation from the mean
Poll(P)= Kerry's exit poll percentage
Vote   = Kerry's vote percentage
Dev    = Poll - Vote spread
Prob   = Probability of deviation based on Z-score 

Formulas:
Stdev  = sqrt(p*(1-p)/n)
MoE    = 1.96* StDev 
Z      = Dev/ StDev

Prob = 1 - NORMSDIST(Z)

Region	Z	Votes	 Size  MoE	StDev	Poll	Vote	Dev	Prob 	 1 in	For
EAST											
CT	1.94	1551	872	3.27%	1.67%	58.47	55.24	-3.24%	2.62%	38	Bush
DC	1.02	372	795	1.92%	0.98%	91.63	90.63	-1.00%	15.40%	6	Bush
DE	2.60	224	770	3.48%	1.78%	58.44	53.82	-4.62%	0.46%	216	Bush
MA	2.38	2875	889	3.10%	1.58%	66.46	62.70	-3.76%	0.88%	114	Bush
MD	0.50	2359	1000	3.07%	1.57%	57.04	56.25	-0.79%	30.71%	3	Bush
ME	0.32	727	1968	2.20%	1.12%	54.83	54.48	-0.36%	37.58%	3	Bush
NH	4.16	672	1849	2.27%	1.16%	55.50	50.68	-4.81%	0.00%	63547	Bush
NJ	2.36	3581	1520	2.49%	1.27%	56.13	53.13	-3.00%	0.92%	108	Bush
NY	4.10	7277	1452	2.47%	1.26%	63.97	58.79	-5.17%	0.00%	49430	Bush
PA	2.89	5732	1930	2.22%	1.13%	54.41	51.13	-3.28%	0.19%	521	Bush
RI	2.23	429	809	3.30%	1.69%	64.24	60.48	-3.76%	1.29%	77	Bush
VT	2.95	305	685	3.56%	1.81%	65.69	60.34	-5.35%	0.16%	628	Bush
WV	1.43	750	1722	2.35%	1.20%	45.19	43.48	-1.72%	7.61%	13	Bush

AVG	2.22	26854	16261	2.75%	1.40%	59.60	56.09	-3.51%	9.49E-13	1,053,596,824,745	
									
MIDWEST											
IA	1.13	1494	2502	1.96%	1.00%	50.67	49.54	-1.13%	12.93%	8	Bush
IL	1.61	5239	1392	2.60%	1.33%	57.13	54.99	-2.14%	5.35%	19	Bush
IN	0.94	2448	926	3.17%	1.62%	40.97	39.46	-1.51%	17.44%	6	Bush
KS	1.27	1171	654	3.65%	1.86%	34.60	36.97	2.37%	10.15%	10	Kerry
MI	0.81	4793	2452	1.98%	1.01%	52.55	51.73	-0.82%	20.89%	5	Bush
MN	2.67	2792	2178	2.09%	1.07%	54.61	51.76	-2.85%	0.38%	263	Bush
MO	1.07	2715	2158	2.11%	1.07%	47.48	46.33	-1.15%	14.28%	7	Bush
ND	1.35	308	649	3.63%	1.85%	33.58	36.09	2.51%	8.80%	11	Kerry
NE	2.33	767	785	3.37%	1.72%	36.54	32.53	-4.01%	0.99%	102	Bush
OH	2.94	5599	1963	2.21%	1.13%	52.06	48.75	-3.31%	0.17%	602	Bush
SD	1.34	382	1495	2.45%	1.25%	37.42	39.09	1.67%	9.09%	11	Kerry
WI	0.01	2968	2223	2.08%	1.06%	50.21	50.20	-0.02%	49.44%	2	Bush

AVG	1.87	30676	19377	2.61%	1.33%	50.28	48.68	-1.60%	3.60E-03	278	
											
SOUTH											
AL	2.20	1870	730	3.57%	1.82%	41.08	37.08	-4.00%	1.40%	72	Bush
AR	1.64	1998	1402	2.61%	1.33%	46.93	44.74	-2.19%	5.01%	20	Bush
FL	2.63	7548	2846	1.84%	0.94%	49.93	47.47	-2.46%	0.43%	231	Bush
GA	1.21	3280	1536	2.48%	1.26%	43.11	41.58	-1.53%	11.33%	9	Bush
KY	0.50	1782	1034	3.00%	1.53%	40.76	39.99	-0.76%	30.92%	3	Bush
LA	1.54	1922	1669	2.38%	1.22%	44.50	42.63	-1.87%	6.22%	16	Bush
MS	1.88	1130	798	3.44%	1.75%	43.20	39.91	-3.30%	3.00%	33	Bush
NC	3.35	3487	2167	2.10%	1.07%	47.31	43.72	-3.60%	0.04%	2508	Bush
OK	0.24	1464	1539	2.38%	1.21%	34.73	34.44	-0.29%	40.59%	2	Bush
SC	3.75	1600	1735	2.34%	1.20%	45.79	41.31	-4.48%	0.01%	11104	Bush
TN	1.39	2421	1774	2.29%	1.17%	41.15	42.78	1.63%	8.19%	12	Kerry
TX	1.40	7360	1671	2.31%	1.18%	36.84	38.49	1.65%	8.08%	12	Kerry
VA	1.75	3172	1431	2.59%	1.32%	47.96	45.65	-2.31%	4.01%	25	Bush

AVG	1.81	39034	20332	2.56%	1.31%	43.75	42.33	-1.42%	1.41E-06	709,051	
											
WEST											
AK	2.44	302	910	3.18%	1.62%	40.14	36.17	-3.97%	0.73%	138	Bush
AZ	1.36	1043	1859	2.27%	1.16%	46.60	45.03	-1.57%	8.75%	11	Bush
CA	0.46	12255	1919	2.22%	1.13%	55.73	55.21	-0.53%	32.14%	3	Bush
CO	1.73	2103	2515	1.95%	1.00%	49.07	47.35	-1.72%	4.20%		Bush
HI	0.47	426	499	4.38%	2.23%	53.32	54.37	1.05%	31.86%	3	Kerry
ID	1.32	590	559	3.91%	1.99%	33.33	30.71	-2.63%	9.39%	11	Bush
MT	0.12	440	640	3.78%	1.93%	39.28	39.51	0.22%	45.40%	2	Kerry
NM	1.70	748	1951	2.22%	1.13%	51.34	49.42	-1.93%	*4.43%	23	Bush
NV	1.83	816	2116	2.13%	1.09%	50.66	48.67	-1.99%	3.33%	30	Bush
OR	0.49	1810	1064	3.00%	1.53%	51.22	51.97	0.75%	31.32%	3	Kerry
UT	1.77	905	798	3.18%	1.62%	29.93	27.06	-2.87%	3.84%	26	Bush
WA	1.36	2815	2123	2.12%	1.08%	55.07	53.60	-1.47%	8.69%	12	Bush
WY	1.33	238	684	3.50%	1.78%	32.07	29.70	-2.37%	9.23%	11	Bush

AVG	1.26	24491	17637	2.91%	1.49%	51.81	50.87	0.94%	2.86E-07	3,500,172	
											
											
											
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