Reply #14: I'm struggling with this, too. Your conclusion doesn't surprise..

[Peace Patriot]

...me in the least. It is consistent with everything else we know (the Zogby prediction, the current and past opinion polls (Bush approval at 49% on his Inauguration Day!, and 45% last week, with numbers in the 60% to 70% range disapproving all major Bush policy, and consistent unprecedented disapproval over time, in many different polls). But I don't quite follow your argument here.

Let me break down my questions, item by item:

"The average of 11 final Pre-election polls had Bush approval
at 48.5%."

You're speaking here of opinion polls from different polling organizations, prior to the election, which you have averaged together? Right? Just to be clear. Do you have a date for these?

"In the preliminary Exit Poll (11027 of 13660 final
respondents) the Bush Approval question was answered by
n=5666 respondents, who gave Bush their own 51% approval
rating."

The "preliminary Exit Poll" is early on election day? Of actual voters, early in the day (right)? I'm kind of confused, in that case, why they were asked for a Bush approval rating, rather than asked how they just voted? (Or maybe they were asked both? --and if so, were all voters who were exit polled asked for both a Bush approval rating, and how they voted?). If they were asked both, was the 51% approval rating in this group consistent with their vote? Are these preliminary Exit Poll respondents a subgroup of the "final respondents"?

"...who gave their own 51% approval rating." What does "their own" mean? The Exit Pollsters decided to treat this early group in a special way (i.e., asking for approval/disapproval of Bush, as compared to....?)?

I guess what I'm asking here is: WHAT is a "preliminary Exit Poll"? (I'm not sure.) Are these actual voters, and, if not, how were these respondents selected? Was it just an opinion poll by another name? (And, when were they polled?)

------

"Using this job approval as a demographic weight, Kerry won by
almost 3.6 MILLION VOTES."

What do you mean by "this" ("Using THIS job approval...")? (The average of the preelection opinion polls? The "preliminary Exit Polls"? A combination?)

How are you getting from the percentages (i.e., 51% Bush approval in prelim Exit Polls) to the Kerry vote (won by 3.6 million)?

Where does the 48% "Dissap" figure, in the "Mix" column, come from? (And, what does "Mix" mean? I really don't understand it.)

Bush Approval
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Approve 51% 88% 11% 1%
Dissap 48% 5% 93% 1%

Total 99% 47.28% 50.25% 0.99%
Votes 120.5 57.8 61.44 1.21

The MoE for 5666 respondents = 1.33%.
............................................................

"Assuming the Nov. 1 Bush 48.5% job approval was closer to the
truth, Kerry won by almost 10 MILLION VOTES."

You are talking now, in saying "Nov. 1," about the "average of 11 final Pre-election polls"? Just to be clear. All 11 were conducted on the day before the election? Given this, what then was the "preliminary Exit Poll," and when was IT conducted? (--I'm having to assume that "closer to the truth" means "closer to the election," i.e. Nov. 1; ergo the "preliminary Exit Poll" must have been conducted prior to Nov. 1. But if that's true, why is it called an "Exit Poll"?)

Bush Approval
Mix Bush Kerry Nader
Approve 48.5% 88% 11% 1%
Dissap 51.5% 5% 93% 2%

Total 100% 45.26% 53.23% 1.52%
Votes 122.2 55.33 65.08 1.85

Again, I guess I'm just not sure of the terms of this table, and where each figure came from. Approve? Dissap? Mix? Also, didn't Kerry WIN in the early Exit Polls--the data that appeared on everybody's TV screens (that was fiddled later in the day to fit the official tally)? Why is there a discrepancy between Bush approval (51%) in the "preliminary Exit Polls" and the early on election day Exit Polls (of actual voters)? (And, to repeat my question from above: WHO was being polled in the "preliminary Exit Polls," and when?)