You are viewing an obsolete version of the DU website which is no longer supported by the Administrators. Visit The New DU.
Democratic Underground Latest Greatest Lobby Journals Search Options Help Login
Google

Reply #4: Bush 2000 voter? The upper limit on THAT should be 39.82%.. [View All]

Printer-friendly format Printer-friendly format
Printer-friendly format Email this thread to a friend
Printer-friendly format Bookmark this thread
This topic is archived.
Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU
TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-16-05 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Bush 2000 voter? The upper limit on THAT should be 39.82%..
Edited on Sat Apr-16-05 08:55 AM by TruthIsAll
In THAT characteristic, we already KNOW what the maximum (assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout). We don't need a sample to tell us that. It's a fact.

The Maximum Bush 2000 voter/2004 turnout ratio X is:
X= (1-.035)*50.456/122.26
or
X= 48.69/122.26 =39.82%,
since approximately 3.5% of Bush 2000 voters have DIED.

So how could it have been 43%? That is IMPOSSIBLE. Even if it were a SAMPLED result, which it wasn't, that would put it way beyond the MoE. No, the 43% was a characteristic "adjustment" weighting that was made in order to MATCH the vote.

Exit polls are MORE accurate than standard surveys. And the MoE pollsters claim for standard pre-election polls EXACTLY matches the formula. You can look them up: Zogby, ARG, Gallup... ALL of them.

So why should the Standard MoE formula NOT be used for EXIT POLLS? If anything, it is CONSERVATIVE, since EXIT polls have been proven to be MORE accurate than STANDARD POLLS. Why so?

Because the EXIT POLL SAMPLE-SIZE IS LARGER AND THE RESPONDENTS KNOW WHO THEY JUST VOTED FOR.

Kiwi, believe whatever you want to believe.
Printer Friendly | Permalink |  | Top
 

Home » Discuss » Topic Forums » Election Reform Donate to DU

Powered by DCForum+ Version 1.1 Copyright 1997-2002 DCScripts.com
Software has been extensively modified by the DU administrators


Important Notices: By participating on this discussion board, visitors agree to abide by the rules outlined on our Rules page. Messages posted on the Democratic Underground Discussion Forums are the opinions of the individuals who post them, and do not necessarily represent the opinions of Democratic Underground, LLC.

Home  |  Discussion Forums  |  Journals |  Store  |  Donate

About DU  |  Contact Us  |  Privacy Policy

Got a message for Democratic Underground? Click here to send us a message.

© 2001 - 2011 Democratic Underground, LLC