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Reply #4: Bush 2000 voter? The upper limit on THAT should be 39.82%.. [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Sat Apr-16-05 08:40 AM
Response to Reply #3
4. Bush 2000 voter? The upper limit on THAT should be 39.82%..
Edited on Sat Apr-16-05 08:55 AM by TruthIsAll
In THAT characteristic, we already KNOW what the maximum (assuming 100% Bush 2000 voter turnout). We don't need a sample to tell us that. It's a fact.

The Maximum Bush 2000 voter/2004 turnout ratio X is:
X= (1-.035)*50.456/122.26
X= 48.69/122.26 =39.82%,
since approximately 3.5% of Bush 2000 voters have DIED.

So how could it have been 43%? That is IMPOSSIBLE. Even if it were a SAMPLED result, which it wasn't, that would put it way beyond the MoE. No, the 43% was a characteristic "adjustment" weighting that was made in order to MATCH the vote.

Exit polls are MORE accurate than standard surveys. And the MoE pollsters claim for standard pre-election polls EXACTLY matches the formula. You can look them up: Zogby, ARG, Gallup... ALL of them.

So why should the Standard MoE formula NOT be used for EXIT POLLS? If anything, it is CONSERVATIVE, since EXIT polls have been proven to be MORE accurate than STANDARD POLLS. Why so?


Kiwi, believe whatever you want to believe.
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