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The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its under 1.0% for over 8000 respondents [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Fri Apr-15-05 03:59 AM
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The MoE Formula: Mitofsky agrees its under 1.0% for over 8000 respondents
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Edited on Fri Apr-15-05 04:15 AM by TruthIsAll
If the number (n) of exit poll respondents is over 8000, Mitofsky's own table states the MoE is 1%, regardless of voter characteristic percentage (p). The numbers are rounded to the nearest 1%.

The NEP table showing the MOE (for a 95% confidence interval):



Compare the table to the standard MoE Formula:
MOE = 1.96*sqrt(P*(1-P)/n)

Here are the corresponding formula-based percentages (using the middle value of the range):

%Voters
....... 100.... 150.... 350.... 725... 1650... 3800.. 6625.. 11500

05% 4.27% 3.49% 2.28% 1.59% 1.05% 0.69% 0.52% 0.40%
15% 7.00% 5.71% 3.74% 2.60% 1.72% 1.14% 0.86% 0.65%
25% 8.49% 6.93% 4.54% 3.15% 2.09% 1.38% 1.04% 0.79%
50% 9.80% 8.00% 5.24% 3.64% 2.41% 1.59% 1.20% 0.91%



These are the formula percentages for the corresponding number of exit poll respondents

%Voters
........ 3168 11027 13047 13660
.............. 7:38pm 12:22am 2:05pm

05% 0.76% 0.41% 0.37% 0.37%
15% 1.24% 0.67% 0.61% 0.60%
25% 1.51% 0.81% 0.74% 0.73%
50% 1.74% 0.93% 0.86% 0.84%

PartyID
39% 1.70% 0.91% 0.84% 0.82%

Gender
54% 1.74% 0.93% 0.86% 0.84%

New Voters
59% 1.71%

Note: there were 3168 respondents to the How Voted in 2000 category, of which 59% of 11027, 57% of 13047 and 54% of 13660 said they voted for Kerry.
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