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Reply #11: You're still leaving out something.... [View All]

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Sancho Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Thu Apr-14-05 03:04 PM
Response to Reply #10
11. You're still leaving out something....
I've worked in related areas - not exactly political polling - but any competent pollster who's not an amature has...

1.) maps of distributions of party affiliation etc. to get stratified or representative samples
2.) embedded questions and observations to estimate lying or inconsistent responses (like the guy with the IBM briefcase and Bush button saying he voted for Kerry)
3.) demographic targets so that there isn't a volunteer effect
4.) historical experience at training pollsters and wording questions

If they have HUNDREDS of low-down lies and can't spot them they are more than incompetent...the trick is a representative sample by planning the samples and measures to start with....anticipating the "nonrespondents" who don't want to answer. These pollsters have the $'s to get it right.

If the statistical scholars (that's for you, Q) out there want some late night reading, find "Eelworms, Bullet Holes, and Geraldine Ferraro" by Howard Wainer....Journal of Educational Statistics, Vol. 14, No. 2
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