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Reply #6: Kerry wins ALL reasonable National Vote scenarios [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 10:41 PM
Response to Original message
6. Kerry wins ALL reasonable National Vote scenarios
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 10:42 PM by TruthIsAll
Here's another calc

Case 4: 
98.2% Kerry turnout, 
55-44% share of new voters
= 51.86% win


						KERRY NATIONAL VOTE SCENARIOS					
						New Voter Share and Gore 2000 Voter Turnout					
						(Assume 100% Turnout of Bush 2000 voters)					

	Assumed		Prelim.		Prelim.				Final		
	Turnout	Turnout	7:38pm		12:22am				2:05pm	2000 Voter Mix	
	Bush	Gore	11027		13047				13660	Bush Gore 	

		KERRY SHARE OF NEW VOTERS								
Case			59%		58%	57%	56%	55%	54%		
1	100.0%	100.0%	52.28%		52.11%	51.94%	51.77%	51.59%	51.42%	39.82%	40.25%
2	99.4%	99.4%	52.33%		52.15%	51.97%	51.80%	51.62%	51.44%	39.57%	40.00%
3	98.8%	98.8%	52.37%		52.19%	52.01%	51.83%	51.64%	51.46%	39.32%	39.75%
4	98.2%	98.2%	52.42%		52.23%	52.04%	51.86%	51.67%	51.48%	39.07%	39.50%
5	97.6%	97.6%	52.46%		52.27%	52.08%	51.89%	51.69%	51.50%	38.82%	39.25%

6	97.0%	97.0%	52.51%		52.31%	52.11%	51.92%	51.72%	51.52%	38.57%	39.00%
7	96.4%	96.4%	52.55%		52.35%	52.15%	51.95%	51.74%	51.54%	38.32%	38.75%
8	95.7%	95.8%	52.60%		52.39%	52.18%	51.98%	51.77%	51.56%	38.07%	38.50%
9	95.1%	95.2%	52.64%		52.43%	52.22%	52.01%	51.79%	51.58%	37.82%	38.25%
10	94.5%	94.6%	52.69%		52.47%	52.25%	52.04%	51.82%	51.60%	37.57%	38.00%

11	93.9%	94.0%	52.73%		52.51%	52.29%	52.07%	51.84%	51.62%	37.32%	37.75%
12	93.3%	93.4%	52.78%		52.55%	52.32%	52.10%	51.87%	51.64%	37.07%	37.50%
13	92.7%	92.8%	52.82%		52.59%	52.36%	52.13%	51.89%	51.66%	36.82%	37.25%
14	92.1%	92.2%	52.87%		52.63%	52.39%	52.16%	51.92%	51.68%	36.57%	37.00%
15	91.5%	91.6%	52.91%		52.67%	52.43%	52.19%	51.94%	51.70%	36.32%	36.75%

16	90.9%	91.0%	52.96%		52.71%	52.46%	52.22%	51.97%	51.72%	36.07%	36.50%
17	90.3%	90.4%	53.00%		52.75%	52.50%	52.25%	51.99%	51.74%	35.82%	36.25%
18	89.7%	89.8%	53.05%		52.79%	52.53%	52.28%	52.02%	51.76%	35.57%	36.00%
19	89.1%	89.2%	53.09%		52.83%	52.57%	52.31%	52.04%	51.78%	35.32%	35.75%
20	88.5%	88.6%	53.14%		52.87%	52.60%	52.34%	52.07%	51.80%	35.07%	35.50%
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