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Reply #22: Bill, let me try again... [View All]

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TruthIsAll Donating Member (1000+ posts) Send PM | Profile | Ignore Mon Apr-04-05 04:17 PM
Response to Reply #21
22. Bill, let me try again...
Edited on Mon Apr-04-05 04:43 PM by TruthIsAll
Don't confuse the core of the issue with responses to the poll.
Forget about the rsponses.
Focus on the physical realities.

And focus on the motivation to "adjust" the weights from 41/39 to 43/37.

Let's look at the weights:
The Preliminary 13047 split was 41/39%. That is THEORETICALLY possible if one assumes that only a few thousand Bush voters died (defying annual death statistics) and ALL of those who lived came to vote in 2004. So, practically speaking, it's IMPOSSIBLE.

But even assuming 41/39% was true, KERRY WON THE 13047 EXIT POLL BASED ON THESE BUSH-BIASED DEMOGRAPHIC WEIGHTS.

Now consider the Final 13660 Poll. Again, do NOT focus on the 25% who responded to the question. Focus on the physical realities.
Just look at the FINAL split: 43%/37%.

Now, we know the preliminary poll weightings had to be adjusted to match the vote. The 13047 weights showed that Kerry won, even though 41/39% in favor of Bush was PHYSICALLY AN IMPOSSIBLE SPLIT.

So what did Edison/ Mitofsky do?
They took an ALREADY IMPOSSIBLE result and instead of matching to the factual 2000 vote, they matched to the BOGUS 2004 vote with an outrageous 43%/37% weighting.

THERE CAN BE NO OTHER REASON FOR REPLACING THE 41%/39% IN THE EXIT POLL OTHER THAN TO MATCH TO A BOGUS VOTE COUNT.

Now 43% of the 122.26 million who voted in 2004 is 52.57 million.
BUT BUSH GOT ONLY 50.456 MILLION VOTES IN 2000!
THAT'S A DIFFERENCE OF 2.11 MILLION.

THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED IN THE FINAL EXIT POLL BY 2.11 MILLION VOTES.

WE KNOW THAT APPROXIMATELY 3.5% OF BUSH 2000 VOTERS DIED (1.77 MILLION) BEFORE ELECTION 2004.

THEREFORE, THE BUSH VOTE WAS INFLATED BY 1.77 + 2.11 = 3.88 MILLION VOTES.

THIS STILL ASSUMES 100% of BUSH 2000 VOTERS CAME TO THE POLLS IN 2004. WE KNOW THAT AT LEAST SOME STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE.
HOW MANY? WHO KNOWS?

BUT WE DO KNOW THAT THE MORE BUSH VOTERS AND KERRY VOTERS WHO STAYED HOME AND DID NOT VOTE, THE MORE NEW VOTERS THERE HAD TO BE.

AND WE KNOW THAT NEW VOTERS WENT FOR KERRY BY 54-45 OR 59-39%, DEPENDING ON WHICH POLL RESULT YOU BELIEVE.

I hope that clears it up.


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